Combining probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed forecasting models at the forefront of health policy making. Predictions of mortality, cases and hospitalisations help governments meet planning and resource allocation challenges. In this paper, we consider the weekly forecasting of the cumulative mortality due to COVID-19 at the national and state level in the U.S. Optimal decision-making requires a forecast of a probability distribution, rather than just a single point forecast. Interval forecasts are also important, as they can support decision making and provide situational awareness. We consider the case where probabilistic forecasts have been provided by multiple forecasting teams, and we combine the forecasts to extract the wisdom of the crowd. We use a dataset that has been made publicly available

SUBMITTER: Taylor JW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8236414 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature