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A control framework to optimize public health policies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic triggered substantial economic and social disruptions. Mitigation policies varied across countries based on resources, political conditions, and human behavior. In the absence of widespread vaccination able to induce herd immunity, strategies to coexist with the virus while minimizing risks of surges are paramount, which should work in parallel with reopening societies. To support these strategies, we present a predictive control system coupled with a nonlinear model able to optimize the level of policies to stop epidemic growth. We applied this system to study the unfolding of COVID-19 in Bahia, Brazil, also assessing the effects of varying population compliance. We show the importance of finely tuning the levels of enforced measures to achieve SARS-CoV-2 containment, with periodic interventions emerging as an optimal control strategy in the long-term.

SUBMITTER: Pataro IML

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8239053 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A control framework to optimize public health policies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pataro Igor M L IML Oliveira Juliane F JF Morato Marcelo M MM Amad Alan A S AAS Amad Alan A S AAS Ramos Pablo I P PIP Pereira Felipe A C FAC Silva Mateus S MS Jorge Daniel C P DCP Andrade Roberto F S RFS Barreto Mauricio L ML Costa Marcus Americano da MAD

Scientific reports 20210628 1

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic triggered substantial economic and social disruptions. Mitigation policies varied across countries based on resources, political conditions, and human behavior. In the absence of widespread vaccination able to induce herd immunity, strategies to coexist with the virus while minimizing risks of surges are paramount, which should work in parallel with reopening societies. To support these strategies, we present a predictive control system coupled with a nonlinear model able ...[more]

PMID: 34183727

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Project description:ObjectivesTo map travel policies implemented due to COVID-19 during 2020, and conduct a mixed-methods systematic review of health effects of such policies, and related contextual factors.DesignPolicy mapping and systematic review. DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: for the policy mapping, we searched websites of relevant government bodies and used data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker for a convenient sample of 31 countries across different regions. For the systematic review, we searched Medline (Ovid), PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and COVID-19 specific databases. We included randomized controlled trial, non-randomized studies, modeling studies, and qualitative studies. Two independent reviewers selected studies, abstracted data and assessed risk of bias.ResultsMost countries adopted a total border closure at the start of the pandemic. For the remainder of the year, partial border closure banning arrivals from some countries or regions was the most widely adopted measure, followed by mandatory quarantine and screening of travelers. The systematic search identified 69 eligible studies, including 50 modeling studies. Both observational and modeling evidence suggest that border closure may reduce the number of COVID-19 cases, disease spread across countries and between regions, and slow the progression of the outbreak. These effects are likely to be enhanced when implemented early, and when combined with measures reducing transmission rates in the community. Quarantine of travelers may decrease the number of COVID-19 cases but its effectiveness depends on compliance and enforcement and is more effective if followed by testing, especially when less than 14 day-quarantine is considered. Screening at departure and/or arrival is unlikely to detect a large proportion of cases or to delay an outbreak. Effectiveness of screening may be improved with increased sensitivity of screening tests, awareness of travelers, asymptomatic screening, and exit screening at country source. While four studies on contextual evidence found that the majority of the public is supportive of travel restrictions, they uncovered concerns about the unintended harms of those policies.ConclusionMost countries adopted full or partial border closure in response to COVID-19 in 2020. Evidence suggests positive effects on controlling the COVID-19 pandemic for border closure (particularly when implemented early), as well as quarantine of travelers (particularly with higher levels of compliance). While these positive effects are enhanced when implemented in combination with other public health measures, they are associated with concerns by the public regarding some unintended effects.

Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 drastically changed the school choice landscape as families considered schools with varying public health protocols as well as academic and demographic characteristics. Our understanding of families' preferences during the pandemic is limited, however, because it primarily derives from surveys asking parents about a single school characteristic.ObjectiveWe aimed to understand how families' preferences for schools' racial composition and public health policies may interdepend.MethodsWe conducted an original school choice survey experiment with U.S. White parents in August 2021. Parents indicated their willingness to enroll their student in hypothetical schools with experimentally randomized school quality ratings, racial and socioeconomic demographics, and COVID mitigation strategies (i.e. instructional modalities, mask and vaccination mandates).ResultsWe find novel causal evidence that White parents' preferences for schools' racial demographics and public health policies are interdependent. Among otherwise similar schools, parents expressed stronger preferences to avoid Black, Latinx, and Asian schools when there were fewer COVID mitigation policies. Relatedly, parents required more stringent COVID protocols for their children to attend predominantly Black, Latinx, and Asian schools while showing no preferences for COVID policies among predominantly White schools. The interdependence of preferred racial demographics and public health polices was amplified among White parents who held stigmatizing beliefs about Asian populations carrying the COVID virus and pro-White sentiments. Although Democrats expressed stronger preferences for schools with more COVID mitigation strategies than Republicans, for White parents across the political spectrum school racial composition and COVID mitigation preferences interdepended.ConclusionsThis study suggests families may leverage flexible student assignment policies and schools of choice to enroll in or avoid schools based on both preferred public health policies and racial demographics. Districts should consider how adopting strong public health policies during infectious disease outbreaks may help mitigate hardened racial avoidance and school racial segregation.

Dataset Information

A control framework to optimize public health policies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Publications

A control framework to optimize public health policies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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