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Regional growth and disparities in a post-COVID Europe: A new normality scenario.

ABSTRACT: This paper addresses the important question "Which European areas will be able to better react to the crisis induced by COVID-19 and how regional disparities will look like?" To provide an answer, a "new normality" scenario is built, comprising the structural changes likely to take place in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. To develop such scenario, two intermediate steps are necessary, in both cases relying on the use of the latest generation of the MAcroeconomic, Sectoral, Social, Territorial (MASST4) model. First, short-run costs of the COVID-induced lockdowns, in terms of missed GDP, are calculated for all European NUTS2 regions, needed because of the lack of short-run statistics about the extent of the regional costs caused by the lockdowns that will only appear in 2 years. Second, a long-run simulation of the economic rebound expected to take place from 2021 through 2030 is presented, assuming, among other trends, that no further national lockdowns will be undertaken in European countries. In the "new normality" scenario, regional disparity trends will decrease as a result of a decisive rebound of those countries mostly hit by the pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Capello R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8242642 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Regional growth and disparities in a post-COVID Europe: A new normality scenario.

Capello Roberta R Caragliu Andrea A

Journal of regional science 20210607 4

This paper addresses the important question "Which European areas will be able to better react to the crisis induced by COVID-19 and how regional disparities will look like?" To provide an answer, a "new normality" scenario is built, comprising the structural changes likely to take place in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. To develop such scenario, two intermediate steps are necessary, in both cases relying on the use of the latest generation of the MAcroeconomic, Sectoral, Social, Territori ...[more]

PMID: 34226757

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Project description:BackgroundPrevious research has identified growing up in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) as a protective factor against childhood abuse and neglect compared to growing up in the former Federal Republic of Germany (FRG). This study investigates whether these differences persist among individuals born after German reunification, providing a novel focus on the post-unification generation and the possible transgenerational transmission of childhood maltreatment in Germany.MethodThe prevalence of self-reported abusive and neglected childhood experiences among 17- to 31-year-olds, stratified by gender and socio-political context (East/West), was examined using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ). Data of the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KIGGS-study) between 2014 and 2017 was used. Logistic regression models were used to assess the influence of covariates such as age, subjective social status, and education on childhood trauma experiences.ResultsAltogether, 18.6% (East = 15.8%/ West = 19.0%) of the N = 5,982 participants reported at least one type of maltreatment. The prevalence of at least moderate abuse was found to be 6.8% (East = 5.8%/West = 7.0%) for emotional, 3.7% (East = 2.4%/West = 3.9%) for physical, and 3.3% (East = 1.9%/West = 3.6%) for sexual abuse, and a prevalence of 9.2% (East = 8.5%/West = 9.3%) for emotional and 8.7% (East = 7.4%/West = 8.9%) for physical neglect. Individuals residing in eastern German regions reported significant lower prevalence rates for sexual and physical abuse, as well as overall maltreatment.ConclusionSignificant regional disparities in childhood maltreatment were observed among individuals raised in post-unification Germany, suggesting the persistence of sociopolitical influences from the former GDR as a protective factor. These findings underscore the importance of understanding transgenerational transmission factors of childhood maltreatment, such as parenting behaviors within differing sociopolitical contexts. The results have important implications for child welfare policies, emphasizing the need to address regional disparities and to incorporate historical and sociopolitical factors into future research and intervention strategies.

Project description:BackgroundSmartphone-based apps designed and deployed to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic may become infrastructure for postpandemic public health surveillance in the United States. Through the lenses of privacy concerns and user expectations of digital pandemic mitigation techniques, we identified possible long-term sociotechnical implications of such an infrastructure.ObjectiveWe explored how people in the United States perceive the possible routinization of pandemic tracking apps for public health surveillance in general. Our interdisciplinary analysis focused on the interplay between privacy concerns, data practices of surveillance capitalism, and trust in health care providers. We conducted this analysis to achieve a richer understanding of the sociotechnical issues raised by the deployment and use of technology for pandemic mitigation.MethodsWe conducted scenario-based, semistructured interviews (n=19) with adults in the United States. The interviews focused on how people perceive the short- and long-term privacy concerns associated with a fictional smart thermometer app deployed to mitigate the "outbreak of a contagious disease." In order to elicit future-oriented discussions, the scenario indicated that the app would continue functioning "after the disease outbreak has dissipated." We analyzed interview transcripts using reflexive thematic analysis.ResultsIn the context of pandemic mitigation technology, including app-based tracking, people perceive a core trade-off between public health and personal privacy. People tend to rationalize this trade-off by invoking the concept of "the greater good." The interplay between the trade-off and rationalization forms the core of sociotechnical issues that pandemic mitigation technologies raise. Participants routinely expected that data collected through apps related to public health would be shared with unknown third parties for the financial gain of the app makers. This expectation suggests a perceived alignment between an app-based infrastructure for public health surveillance and the broader economics of surveillance capitalism. Our results highlight unintended and unexpected sociotechnical impacts of routinizing app-based tracking on postpandemic life, which are rationalized by invoking a nebulous concept of the greater good.ConclusionsWhile technologies such as app-based tracking could be useful for pandemic mitigation and preparedness, the routinization of such apps as a form of public health surveillance may have broader, unintentional sociotechnical implications for individuals and the societies in which they live. Although technology has the potential to increase the efficacy of pandemic mitigation, it exists within a broader network of sociotechnical concerns. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the long-term implications of pandemic mitigation technologies beyond the immediate needs of addressing the COVID-19 pandemic. Potential negative consequences include the erosion of patient trust in health care systems and providers, grounded in concerns about privacy violations and overly broad surveillance.

Dataset Information

Regional growth and disparities in a post-COVID Europe: A new normality scenario.

Publications

Regional growth and disparities in a post-COVID Europe: A new normality scenario.

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