Dataset Information

Learning from deregulation: The asymmetric impact of lockdown and reopening on risky behavior during COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, states issued and then rescinded stay-at-home orders that restricted mobility. We develop a model of learning by deregulation, which predicts that lifting stay-at-home orders can signal that going out has become safer. Using restaurant activity data, we find that the implementation of stay-at-home orders initially had a limited impact, but that activity rose quickly after states' reopenings. The results suggest that consumers inferred from reopening that it was safer to eat out. The rational, but mistaken inference that occurs in our model may explain why a sharp rise of COVID-19 cases followed reopening in some states.

SUBMITTER: Glaeser EL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8242873 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Learning from deregulation: The asymmetric impact of lockdown and reopening on risky behavior during COVID-19.

Glaeser Edward L EL Jin Ginger Z GZ Leyden Benjamin T BT Luca Michael M

Journal of regional science 20210607 4

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, states issued and then rescinded stay-at-home orders that restricted mobility. We develop a model of learning by deregulation, which predicts that lifting stay-at-home orders can signal that going out has become safer. Using restaurant activity data, we find that the implementation of stay-at-home orders initially had a limited impact, but that activity rose quickly after states' reopenings. The results suggest that consumers inferred from ...[more]

PMID: 34226759

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Project description:We present a novel approach for exiting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdowns using a 'risk scorecard' to prioritize activities to resume whilst allowing safe reopening. We modelled cases generated in the community/week, incorporating parameters for social distancing, contact tracing and imported cases. We set thresholds for cases and analysed the effect of varying parameters. An online tool to facilitate country-specific use including the modification of parameters (https://sshsphdemos.shinyapps.io/covid_riskbudget/) enables visualization of effects of parameter changes and trade-offs. Local outbreak investigation data from Singapore illustrate this. Setting a threshold of 0.9 mean number of secondary cases arising from a case to keep R < 1, we showed that opening all activities excluding high-risk ones (e.g. nightclubs) allows cases to remain within threshold; while opening high-risk activities would exceed the threshold and result in escalating cases. An 80% reduction in imported cases per week (141 to 29) reduced steady-state cases by 30% (295 to 205). One-off surges in cases (due to superspreading) had no effect on the steady state if the R remains <1. Increasing the effectiveness of contact tracing (probability of a community case being isolated when infectious) by 33% (0.6 to 0.8) reduced cases by 22% (295 to 231). Cases grew exponentially if the product of the mean number of secondary cases arising from a case and (1-probability of case being isolated) was >1. Countries can utilize a 'risk scorecard' to balance relaxations for travel and domestic activity depending on factors that reduce disease impact, including hospital/ICU capacity, contact tracing, quarantine and vaccination. The tool enabled visualization of the combinations of imported cases and activity levels on the case numbers and the trade-offs required. For vaccination, a reduction factor should be applied both for likelihood of an infected case being present and a close contact getting infected.

Project description:BackgroundThe transition of teaching from in-person to Distance Learning (DL) due to the COVID-19 pandemic led to negative effects on students' psychological wellbeing and academic achievement. The worst consequences have been experienced by students with so-called special educational needs, as well as by their parents. However, very little emphasis has been placed on the effects of DL in students with Specific Learning Disorders (SLD). The present work aimed to evaluate the effects of DL during the COVID-19 lockdown in Italian students with SLD and in their parents.MethodsAn online survey was administered to 92 students with SLD and their parents after the COVID-19 lockdown. The survey consisted of four sections: participants' demographic information; perceived stress related to general aspects (i.e., social and family determinants) as well as specific aspects related to DL; attitudes and feelings toward DL; and academic grades before and after DL.ResultsStudents with SLD perceived stress mainly from social isolation/distancing and DL (p always ≤ 0.0001), especially from online classes and oral exams (p always ≤ 0.0001). Students who did not benefit from appropriate accommodations (i.e., individualized teaching and learning methods) during DL perceived 3 times more DL-related stress than those who used them as in-person learning (OR = 3.00, CI 95%: 1.24-7.28, p = 0.015). Girls perceived more stress from online lessons (OR = 0.40, CI 95%: 0.16-0.96, p = 0.04) and use of devices (OR = 0.33, CI 95%: 0.14-0.80, p = 0.015) than boys. Negative feelings (less motivation, reduced ability to understand lessons, interact, and stay focused) and positive feelings (less anxiety and more self-confidence with its own rate of learning) toward DL emerged. Higher academic grades also was observed after DL (p ≤ 0.0001). Lastly, strong and positive correlations emerged between students' and parents' perceived stress during DL (p always < 0.001).ImplicationsThe present study prompts special considerations for students with special educational needs not only when providing conventional instruction, but especially when it is necessary to suddenly modify teaching approaches.

Dataset Information

Learning from deregulation: The asymmetric impact of lockdown and reopening on risky behavior during COVID-19.

Publications

Learning from deregulation: The asymmetric impact of lockdown and reopening on risky behavior during COVID-19.

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