SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe.

ABSTRACT:

Aims

The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.

Methods and results

We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using

SUBMITTER: SCORE2 working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk collaboration 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8248998 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature