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Predictors of severe COVID-19 in kidney transplant recipients in the different epidemic waves: Analysis of the Spanish Registry.

ABSTRACT: SARS-CoV-2 infection has produced high mortality in kidney transplant (KT) recipients, especially in the elderly. Until December 2020, 1011 KT with COVID-19 have been prospectively included in the Spanish Registry and followed until recovery or death. In multivariable analysis, age, pneumonia, and KT performed ≤6 months before COVID-19 were predictors of death, whereas gastrointestinal symptoms were protective. Survival analysis showed significant increasing mortality risk in four subgroups according to recipient age and time after KT (age <65 years and posttransplant time >6 months, age <65 and time ≤6, age ≥65 and time >6 and age ≥65 and time ≤6): mortality rates were, respectively, 11.3%, 24.5%, 35.4%, and 54.5% (p < .001). Patients were significantly younger, presented less pneumonia, and received less frequently specific anti-COVID-19 treatment in the second wave (July-December) than in the first one (March-June). Overall mortality was lower in the second wave (15.1 vs. 27.4%, p < .001) but similar in critical patients (66.7% vs. 58.1%, p = .29). The interaction between age and time post-KT should be considered when selecting recipients for transplantation in the COVID-19 pandemic. Advanced age and a recent KT should foster strict protective measures, including vaccination.

SUBMITTER: Villanego F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8250925 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of severe COVID-19 in kidney transplant recipients in the different epidemic waves: Analysis of the Spanish Registry.

Villanego Florentino F Mazuecos Auxiliadora A Pérez-Flores Isabel M IM Moreso Francesc F Andrés Amado A Jiménez-Martín Carlos C Molina María M Canal Cristina C Sánchez-Cámara Luis A LA Zárraga Sofía S Ruiz-Fuentes María Del Carmen MDC Aladrén María José MJ Melilli Edoardo E López Verónica V Sánchez-Álvarez Emilio E Crespo Marta M Pascual Julio J

American journal of transplantation : official journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons 20210412 7

SARS-CoV-2 infection has produced high mortality in kidney transplant (KT) recipients, especially in the elderly. Until December 2020, 1011 KT with COVID-19 have been prospectively included in the Spanish Registry and followed until recovery or death. In multivariable analysis, age, pneumonia, and KT performed ≤6 months before COVID-19 were predictors of death, whereas gastrointestinal symptoms were protective. Survival analysis showed significant increasing mortality risk in four subgroups acco ...[more]

PMID: 33756067

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Project description:Kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) are still at risk of severe COVID-19 disease after SARS‑CoV‑2 vaccination, especially when they have limited antibody formation. Our aim was to understand the factors that may limit their humoral response.MethodsOur data are derived from KTRs who were enrolled in the Dutch Renal Patients COVID-19 Vaccination consortium, using a discovery cohort and 2 external validation cohorts. Included in the discovery (N = 1804) and first validation (N = 288) cohorts were participants who received 2 doses of the mRNA-1273 vaccine. The second validation cohort consisted of KTRs who subsequently received a third dose of any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (N = 1401). All participants had no history of SARS-CoV-2 infection. A multivariable logistic prediction model was built using stepwise backward regression analysis with nonseroconversion as the outcome.ResultsThe discovery cohort comprised 836 (46.3%) KTRs, the first validation cohort 124 (43.1%) KTRs, and the second validation cohort 358 (25.6%) KTRs who did not seroconvert. In the final multivariable model' 12 factors remained predictive for nonseroconversion: use of mycophenolate mofetil/mycophenolic acid (MMF/MPA); chronic lung disease, heart failure, and diabetes; increased age; shorter time after transplantation; lower body mass index; lower kidney function; no alcohol consumption; ≥2 transplantations; and no use of mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors or calcineurin inhibitors. The area under the curve was 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-0.79) in the discovery cohort after adjustment for optimism, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.86) in the first validation cohort, and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.64-0.71) in the second validation cohort. The strongest predictor was the use of MMF/MPA, with a dose-dependent unfavorable effect, which remained after 3 vaccinations.ConclusionsIn a large sample of KTRs, we identify a selection of KTRs at high risk of nonseroconversion after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Modulation of MMF/MPA treatment before vaccination may help to optimize vaccine response in these KTRs. This model contributes to future considerations on alternative vaccination strategies.

Dataset Information

Predictors of severe COVID-19 in kidney transplant recipients in the different epidemic waves: Analysis of the Spanish Registry.

Publications

Predictors of severe COVID-19 in kidney transplant recipients in the different epidemic waves: Analysis of the Spanish Registry.

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