Inferring UK COVID-19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: Were infections already in decline before the UK lockdowns?

ABSTRACT: The number of new infections per day is a key quantity for effective epidemic management. It can be estimated relatively directly by testing of random population samples. Without such direct epidemiological measurement, other approaches are required to infer whether the number of new cases is likely to be increasing or decreasing: for example, estimating the pathogen-effective reproduction number, R, using data gathered from the clinical response to the disease. For coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19/SARS-Cov-2), such R estimation is heavily dependent on modelling assumptions, because the available clinical case data are opportunistic observational data subject to severe temporal confounding. Given this difficulty, it is useful to retrospectively reconstruct the time course of infections f

SUBMITTER: Wood SN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8251436 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature