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Monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic with nationwide telecommunication data.

ABSTRACT: In response to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), governments have introduced severe policy measures with substantial effects on human behavior. Here, we perform a large-scale, spatiotemporal analysis of human mobility during the COVID-19 epidemic. We derive human mobility from anonymized, aggregated telecommunication data in a nationwide setting (Switzerland; 10 February to 26 April 2020), consisting of ∼1.5 billion trips. In comparison to the same time period from 2019, human movement in Switzerland dropped by 49.1%. The strongest reduction is linked to bans on gatherings of more than five people, which are estimated to have decreased mobility by 24.9%, followed by venue closures (stores, restaurants, and bars) and school closures. As such, human mobility at a given day predicts reported cases 7 to 13 d ahead. A 1% reduction in human mobility predicts a 0.88 to 1.11% reduction in daily reported COVID-19 cases. When managing epidemics, monitoring human mobility via telecommunication data can support public decision makers in two ways. First, it helps in assessing policy impact; second, it provides a scalable tool for near real-time epidemic surveillance, thereby enabling evidence-based policies.

SUBMITTER: Persson J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8256040 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic with nationwide telecommunication data.

Persson Joel J Parie Jurriaan F JF Feuerriegel Stefan S

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20210601 26

In response to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), governments have introduced severe policy measures with substantial effects on human behavior. Here, we perform a large-scale, spatiotemporal analysis of human mobility during the COVID-19 epidemic. We derive human mobility from anonymized, aggregated telecommunication data in a nationwide setting (Switzerland; 10 February to 26 April 2020), consisting of ∼1.5 billion trips. In comparison to the same time period from 2019, human movement i ...[more]

PMID: 34162708

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Project description:BackgroundOn April 7, 2020, the Japanese government declared a state of emergency regarding the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Given the nation-wide spread of the coronavirus in major Japanese cities and the rapid increase in the number of cases with untraceable infection routes, large-scale monitoring for capturing the current epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in Japan is urgently required.MethodsA chatbot-based healthcare system named COOPERA (COvid-19: Operation for Personalized Empowerment to Render smart prevention And AN care seeking) was developed to surveil the Japanese epidemiological situation in real-time. COOPERA asked questions regarding personal information, location, preventive actions, COVID-19 related symptoms and their residence. Empirical Bayes estimates of the age-sex-standardized incidence rate and disease mapping approach using scan statistics were utilized to identify the geographical distribution of the symptoms in Tokyo and their spatial correlation r with the identified COVID-19 cases.FindingsWe analyzed 353,010 participants from Tokyo recruited from 27th March to 6th April 2020. The mean (SD) age of participants was 42.7 (12.3), and 63.4%, 36.4% or 0.2% were female, male, or others, respectively. 95.6% of participants had no subjective symptoms. We identified several geographical clusters with high spatial correlation (r = 0.9), especially in downtown areas in central Tokyo such as Shibuya and Shinjuku.InterpretationWith the global spread of COVID-19, medical resources are being depleted. A new system to monitor the epidemiological situation, COOPERA, can provide insights to assist political decision to tackle the epidemic. In addition, given that Japan has not had a strong lockdown policy to weaken the spread of the infection, our result would be useful for preparing for the second wave in other countries during the next flu season without a strong lockdown.FundingThe present work was supported in part by a grant from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (H29-Gantaisaku-ippan-009).

Project description:BackgroundTwitter is a real-time messaging platform widely used by people and organizations to share information on many topics. Systematic monitoring of social media posts (infodemiology or infoveillance) could be useful to detect misinformation outbreaks as well as to reduce reporting lag time and to provide an independent complementary source of data compared with traditional surveillance approaches. However, such an analysis is currently not possible in the Arabic-speaking world owing to a lack of basic building blocks for research and dialectal variation.ObjectiveWe collected around 4000 Arabic tweets related to COVID-19 and influenza. We cleaned and labeled the tweets relative to the Arabic Infectious Diseases Ontology, which includes nonstandard terminology, as well as 11 core concepts and 21 relations. The aim of this study was to analyze Arabic tweets to estimate their usefulness for health surveillance, understand the impact of the informal terms in the analysis, show the effect of deep learning methods in the classification process, and identify the locations where the infection is spreading.MethodsWe applied the following multilabel classification techniques: binary relevance, classifier chains, label power set, adapted algorithm (multilabel adapted k-nearest neighbors [MLKNN]), support vector machine with naive Bayes features (NBSVM), bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT), and AraBERT (transformer-based model for Arabic language understanding) to identify tweets appearing to be from infected individuals. We also used named entity recognition to predict the place names mentioned in the tweets.ResultsWe achieved an F1 score of up to 88% in the influenza case study and 94% in the COVID-19 one. Adapting for nonstandard terminology and informal language helped to improve accuracy by as much as 15%, with an average improvement of 8%. Deep learning methods achieved an F1 score of up to 94% during the classifying process. Our geolocation detection algorithm had an average accuracy of 54% for predicting the location of users according to tweet content.ConclusionsThis study identified two Arabic social media data sets for monitoring tweets related to influenza and COVID-19. It demonstrated the importance of including informal terms, which are regularly used by social media users, in the analysis. It also proved that BERT achieves good results when used with new terms in COVID-19 tweets. Finally, the tweet content may contain useful information to determine the location of disease spread.

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Project description:IntroductionBefore the mass vaccination, epidemiological control measures were the only means of containing the COVID-19 epidemic. Their effectiveness determined the consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our study evaluated the impact of sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors on patient-reported epidemiological control measures.MethodsA nationwide representative sample of 1008 randomly selected adults were interviewed in person between 15 March and 30 May 2021. The prevalence of test-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection was 12.1%, of testing was 33.7%, and of contact tracing among test-confirmed infected subjects was 67.9%. The vaccination coverage was 52.4%.ResultsAccording to the multivariable logistic regression models, the occurrence of infection was not influenced by sociodemographic and lifestyle factors or by the presence of chronic disease. Testing was more frequent among middle-aged adults (aOR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.10-2.13) and employed adults (aOR = 2.06, 95% CI 1.42-3.00), and was more frequent among adults with a higher education (aORsecondary = 1.93, 95% CI 1.20-3.13; aORtertiary = 3.19, 95% CI 1.81-5.63). Contact tracing was more frequently implemented among middle-aged (aOR41-7y = 3.33, 95% CI 1.17-9.45) and employed (aOR = 4.58, 95% CI 1.38-15.22), and those with chronic diseases (aOR = 5.92, 95% CI 1.56-22.47). Positive correlation was observed between age groups and vaccination frequency (aOR41-70y = 2.94, 95% CI 2.09-4.15; aOR71+y = 14.52, 95% CI 7.33-28.77). Higher than primary education (aORsecondary = 1.69, 95% CI 1.08-2.63; aORtertiary = 4.36, 95% CI 2.46-7.73) and the presence of a chronic disease (aOR = 2.58, 95% CI 1.75-3.80) positively impacted vaccination. Regular smoking was inversely correlated with vaccination (aOR = 0.60; 95% CI 0.44-0.83).ConclusionsThe survey indicated that testing, contact tracing, and vaccination were seriously influenced by socioeconomic position; less so by chronic disease prevalence and very minimally by lifestyle. The etiological role of socioeconomic inequalities in epidemic measure implementation likely generated socioeconomic inequality in COVID-19-related complication and death rates.

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Monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic with nationwide telecommunication data.

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Monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic with nationwide telecommunication data.

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