The burden of hand, foot, and mouth disease among children under different vaccination scenarios in China: a dynamic modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common illness in young children. A monovalent vaccine has been developed in China protecting against enterovirus-71, bivalent vaccines preventing HFMD caused by two viruses are under development.

Objective

To predict and compare the incidence of HFMD under different vaccination scenarios in China.

Methods

We developed a compartmental model to capture enterovirus transmission and the natural history of HFMD in children aged 0-5, and calibrated to reported cases in the same age-group from 2015 to 2018. We compared the following vaccination scenarios: different combinations of monovalent and bivalent vaccine; a program of constant vaccination to that of pulse vaccination prior to seasonal outbreaks.

Results

We

SUBMITTER: Liu Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8259139 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature