Forecasting the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Oman up to 2050: Mathematical modeling analyses.

ABSTRACT:

Aims/introduction

To investigate and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic, its related risk factors and cost in Oman by 2050.

Materials and methods

An age-structured mathematical model was used to characterize type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemiology and trends in Oman between 1990 and 2050. The model was parametrized using current and quality data, including six nationally representative population-based epidemiological surveys for type 2 diabetes mellitus and its key risk factors.

Results

The projected type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. The prevalence increased from 16.8 and 13.8% in 2020 among women and men to 26.3 and 21.4% in 2050, respectively. In 2020, 190,489 Omanis were living with type 2 diabetes mellitus co

SUBMITTER: Awad SF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8264408 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature