Estimating the wave 1 and wave 2 infection fatality rates from SARS-CoV-2 in India.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

There has been much discussion and debate around the underreporting of COVID-19 infections and deaths in India. In this short report we first estimate the underreporting factor for infections from publicly available data released by the Indian Council of Medical Research on reported number of cases and national seroprevalence surveys. We then use a compartmental epidemiologic model to estimate the undetected number of infections and deaths, yielding estimates of the corresponding underreporting factors. We compare the serosurvey based ad hoc estimate of the infection fatality rate (IFR) with the model-based estimate. Since the first and second waves in India are intrinsically different in nature, we carry out this exercise in two periods: the first wave (April 1, 2020-Jan

SUBMITTER: Purkayastha S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8264482 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature