Dataset Information

Discrimination capability of pretest probability of stable coronary artery disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis suggesting how to improve validation procedures.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Externally validated pretest probability models for risk stratification of subjects with chest pain and suspected stable coronary artery disease (CAD), determined through invasive coronary angiography or coronary CT angiography, are analysed to characterise the best validation procedures in terms of discriminatory ability, predictive variables and method completeness.

Design

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Data sources

Global Health (Ovid), Healthstar (Ovid) and MEDLINE (Ovid) searched on 22 April 2020.

Eligibility criteria

We included studies validating pretest models for the first-line assessment of patients with chest pain and suspected stable CAD. Reasons for exclusion: acute coronary syndrome, unstable chest pain, a history of myocardial infarction or previous revascularisation; models referring to diagnostic procedures different from the usual practices of the first-line assessment; univariable models; lack of quantitative discrimination capability.

Methods

Eligibility screening and review were performed independently by all the authors. Disagreements were resolved by consensus among all the authors. The quality assessment of studies conforms to the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2). A random effects meta-analysis of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values for each validated model was performed.

Results

27 studies were included for a total of 15 models. Besides age, sex and symptom typicality, other risk factors are smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidaemia. Only one model considers genetic profile. AUC values range from 0.51 to 0.81. Significant heterogeneity (p<0.003) was found in all but two cases (p>0.12). Values of I² >90% for most analyses and not significant meta-regression results undermined relevant interpretations. A detailed discussion of individual results was then carried out.

Conclusions

We recommend a clearer statement of endpoints, their consistent measurement both in the derivation and validation phases, more comprehensive validation analyses and the enhancement of threshold validations to assess the effects of pretest models on clinical management.

Prospero registration number

CRD42019139388.

SUBMITTER: Mincarone P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8268916 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Discrimination capability of pretest probability of stable coronary artery disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis suggesting how to improve validation procedures.

Mincarone Pierpaolo P Bodini Antonella A Tumolo Maria Rosaria MR Vozzi Federico F Rocchiccioli Silvia S Pelosi Gualtiero G Caselli Chiara C Sabina Saverio S Leo Carlo Giacomo CG

BMJ open 20210708 7

<h4>Objective</h4>Externally validated pretest probability models for risk stratification of subjects with chest pain and suspected stable coronary artery disease (CAD), determined through invasive coronary angiography or coronary CT angiography, are analysed to characterise the best validation procedures in terms of discriminatory ability, predictive variables and method completeness.<h4>Design</h4>Systematic review and meta-analysis.<h4>Data sources</h4>Global Health (Ovid), Healthstar (Ovid) ...[more]

PMID: 34244268

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Project description:Background Substantial differences exist between different guideline-recommended pretest probability (PTP) models for the detection of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). This study was performed to study the performance of the 2021 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) guideline-recommended PTP (AHA/ACC-PTP) model in assessing the likelihood of obstructive CAD compared with previously proposed models. Methods and Results Symptomatic patients (N=50 561) referred for coronary computed tomography angiography were included. The reference standard was invasive coronary angiography with optional fractional flow reserve measurements. The AHA/ACC-PTP values based on sex and age were calculated and compared with the 2019 European Society of Cardiology guideline PTP values based on sex, age, and symptoms as well as the risk factor-weighted clinical likelihood values based on sex, age, symptoms, and risk factors. The AHA/ACC-PTP maximum values overestimated by a factor of 2.6 the actual prevalence of CAD. Compared with the AHA/ACC-PTP model (area under the receiver-operating curve, 71.5 [95% CI, 70.7-72.2]), inclusion of typicality of symptoms in the European Society of Cardiology guideline PTP improved discrimination of CAD (area under the receiver-operating curve, 75.5 [95% CI, 74.7-76.3]). Inclusion of both symptoms and risk factors in the risk factor-weighted clinical likelihood model further improved discrimination (area under the receiver-operating curve, 77.7 [95% CI, 77.0-78.5]). The proportion of patients classified as very low PTP was lower using the AHA/ACC-PTP (5%) compared with the European Society of Cardiology guideline PTP (19%) and the risk factor-weighted clinical likelihood (49%) models. Conclusions The new AHA/ACC-PTP model overestimates the prevalence of obstructive CAD substantially if type of symptoms and risk factors are not taken into account. Inclusion of both symptoms and risk factors improves model performance and identifies more patients with very low likelihood of CAD in whom further testing can be deferred.

Project description:BACKGROUND Stable coronary artery disease is caused by a variable combination of organic coronary stenosis and functional coronary abnormalities, such as coronary artery spasm. Thus, we examined the clinical importance of comorbid significant coronary stenosis and coronary spasm. METHODS AND RESULTS We enrolled 236 consecutive patients with suspected angina who underwent acetylcholine provocation testing for coronary spasm and fractional flow reserve (FFR) measurement. Among them, 175 patients were diagnosed as having vasospastic angina (VSA), whereas the remaining 61 had no VSA (non-VSA group). The patients with VSA were further divided into the following 3 groups based on angiography and FFR: no organic stenosis (≤50% luminal stenosis; VSA-alone group, n=110), insignificant stenosis of FFR>0.80 (high-FFR group, n=36), and significant stenosis of FFR≤0.80 (low-FFR group, n=29). The incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events, including cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, urgent percutaneous coronary intervention, and hospitalization attributed to unstable angina was evaluated. All patients with VSA received calcium channel blockers, and 28 patients (95%) in the low-FFR group underwent a planned percutaneous coronary intervention. During a median follow-up period of 656 days, although the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events was low and comparable among non-VSA, VSA-alone, and high-FFR groups, the low-FFR group had an extremely poor prognosis (non-VSA group, 1.6%; VSA-alone group, 3.6%; high-FFR group, 5.6%; low-FFR group, 27.6%) (P<0.001). Importantly, all 8 patients with major adverse cardiovascular events in the low-FFR group were appropriately treated with percutaneous coronary intervention and calcium channel blockers. CONCLUSIONS These results indicate that patients with VSA with significant coronary stenosis represent a high-risk population despite current guideline-recommended therapies, suggesting the importance of routine coronary functional testing in this population.

Dataset Information

Discrimination capability of pretest probability of stable coronary artery disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis suggesting how to improve validation procedures.

Objective

Design

Data sources

Eligibility criteria

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Prospero registration number

Publications

Discrimination capability of pretest probability of stable coronary artery disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis suggesting how to improve validation procedures.

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