Analytic Characterization of the Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Epidemic in the United States, 1950-2050.

ABSTRACT:

Background

We analytically characterized the past, present, and future levels and trends of the national herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) epidemic in the United States.

Methods

A population-level mathematical model was constructed to describe HSV-2 transmission dynamics and was fitted to the data series of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Results

Over 1950-2050, antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) increased rapidly from 1960, peaking at 19.9% in 1983 in those aged 15-49 years, before reversing course to decline to 13.2% by 2020 and 8.5% by 2050. Incidence rate peaked in 1971 at 11.9 per 1000 person-years, before declining by 59% by 2020 and 70% by 2050. Annual number of new infections peaked at 1 033 000 in 1978, before declining to 667 000 by

SUBMITTER: Ayoub HH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8274361 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature