The Impact of School Opening Model on SARS-CoV-2 Community Incidence and Mortality: A Nationwide Cohort Study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Ertem Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8288150 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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The Impact of School Opening Model on SARS-CoV-2 Community Incidence and Mortality: A Nationwide Cohort Study.
Ertem Zeynep Z Schechter-Perkins Elissa E Oster Emily E van den Berg Polly P Epshtein Isabella I Chaiyakunapruk Nathorn N Wilson Fernando F Perenchevich Elli E Pettey Warren W Branch-Elliman Westyn W Nelson Richard R
Research square 20210715
The role that in-person schooling contributes to community incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths remains unknown. We conducted an event study evaluating the effect of in-person school on SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths per 100,000 persons during the 12-weeks following school opening, stratified by US Census region. There was no impact of in-person school opening and COVID-19 deaths. In most regions, COVID-19 incidence rates were not statistically different in counties with in-person versus r ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies evaluated the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine safety or compared adverse events following vaccination to those from infection. Limited data about the impact of prior infection on post-vaccine adverse events are available. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection on outcomes shortly after vaccination using a longitudinal design.MethodsNationwide, multicenter, retrospective cohort study of hospitalization, death, and pre-specified adverse event rates among Veterans who received mRNA vaccines within the Veterans Health Administration between 12/11/2020 and 8/31/2021. Daily incidence rates were compared before and after vaccine doses, stratified by history of microbiologically-confirmed SARS-CoV-2.Results3,118,802 patients received a first dose and 2,979,326 a second, including 102,829 with a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Daily incident hospitalization rates were unchanged before and after the second dose among patients without previous infection (28.8/100,000 post-dose versus 28.6/100,000 pre-dose, p = 0.92). In previously-infected patients, the hospitalization rate increased above baseline one day following vaccination (158.2/100,000 after dose 2 versus 57.3/100,000 pre-dose, p < 0.001), then returned to baseline. Chart review indicated vaccine side effects, such as fever, constitutional symptoms, weakness, or falls, as the definite (39%) or possible (18%) cause of hospitalization. Affected patients had mean age 75, and 90% had at least one serious comorbidity. Hospitalizations were brief (median 2 days), with rapid return to baseline health. Worse baseline health among previously-infected patients prevented conclusions about mortality risk.ConclusionsTwo-dose mRNA vaccine regimens are safe in a population with many comorbidities. Transient increased risks of hospitalization were identified among patients with prior SARS-CoV-2, absolute risk ∼1:1000. Findings support additional study regarding the optimal dosing schedule in this population.FundingNone.
| S-EPMC8768509 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 pandemic affected the school-aged population because of the disease itself and due to the measures applied for prevention and control of the infection. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effect of population-based vaccination against COVID-19 on the incidence of infection in school settings.Material and methodsA retrospective descriptive study of COVID-19 cases and school outbreaks was carried out at the province level. Students, teachers and staff from different educational stages of the schools were included. The outcome measure was the incidence according to educational stage, case profile and clinic during the first of the academic year 2020/2021 versus the same period 2021/2022.ResultsThe total incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in classrooms was 2,470 cases per 100,000 population in the first trimester of the academic year 2020/2021 and 2,720 cases per 100,000 population in the same period 2021/2022. The number of reported school outbreaks was 7 times higher in this second period; and the risk of infection in classrooms over 12 years of age (students and teachers) was reduced by 43.1% (vaccinated in high percentage).ConclusionsThis study shows a reduction in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection in students of higher educational stages (secondary and high school) during the first of the academic year 2021/2022 (group with high vaccination coverage at the beginning of the period) compared to the previous school year (without vaccination).
| S-EPMC9986129 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDespite their clear lesser vulnerability to COVID-19, the extent by which children are susceptible to getting infected by SARS-CoV-2 and their capacity to transmit the infection to other people remains inadequately characterized. We aimed to evaluate the role of school reopening and the preventive strategies in place at schools in terms of overall risk for children and community transmission, by comparing transmission rates in children as detected by a COVID-19 surveillance platform in place in Catalonian Schools to the incidence at the community level.Methods and findingsInfections detected in Catalan schools during the entire first trimester of classes (September-December 2020) were analysed and compared with the ongoing community transmission and with the modelled predicted number of infections. There were 30.486 infections (2.12%) documented among the circa 1.5M pupils, with cases detected in 54.0% and 97.5% of the primary and secondary centres, respectively. During the entire first term, the proportion of "bubble groups" (stable groups of children doing activities together) that were forced to undergo confinement ranged between 1 and 5%, with scarce evidence of substantial intraschool transmission in the form of chains of infections, and with ~75% of all detected infections not leading to secondary cases. Mathematical models were also used to evaluate the effect of different parameters related to the defined preventive strategies (size of the bubble group, number of days of confinement required by contacts of an index case). The effective reproduction number inside the bubble groups in schools (R*), defined as the average number of schoolmates infected by each primary case within the bubble, was calculated, yielding a value of 0.35 for primary schools and 0.55 for secondary schools, and compared with the outcomes of the mathematical model, implying decreased transmissibility for children in the context of the applied measures. Relative homogenized monthly cumulative incidence ([Formula: see text]) was assessed to compare the epidemiological dynamics among different age groups and this analysis suggested the limited impact of infections in school-aged children in the context of the overall community incidence.ConclusionsDuring the fall of 2020, SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 cases detected in Catalan schools closely mirrored the underlying community transmission from the neighbourhoods where they were set and maintaining schools open appeared to be safe irrespective of underlying community transmission. Preventive measures in place in those schools appeared to be working for the early detection and rapid containment of transmission and should be maintained for the adequate and safe functioning of normal academic and face-to-face school activities.
| S-EPMC8849486 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Despite advances in medicine, aortic diseases (ADs) such as aortic dissection and aortic aneurysm rupture remain fatal with extremely high mortality rates. Owing to the relatively low prevalence of AD, the risk of AD-related death has not yet been elucidated. The aim of the present study was to examine whether hyperuricemia is a risk factor for AD-related mortality in the general population. We used a nationwide database of 474,725 subjects (age 40-75 years) who participated in the annual "Specific Health Check and Guidance in Japan" between 2008 and 2013. There were 115 deaths from aortic dissection and aortic aneurysm rupture during the follow-up period of 1,803,955 person-years. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that subjects with hyperuricemia had a higher rate of AD-related death than those without hyperuricemia. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis demonstrated that hyperuricemia was an independent risk factor for AD-related death in the general population. The net reclassification index was improved by addition of hyperuricemia to the baseline model. This is the first report to demonstrate that hyperuricemia is a risk factor for AD-related death, indicating that hyperuricemia could be a crucial risk for AD-related death in the general population.
| S-EPMC7459289 | biostudies-literature
Project description:While CDC guidance for K-12 schools recommends indoor masking regardless of vaccination status, final decisions about masking in schools will be made at the local and state level. The impact of the removal of mask restrictions, however, on COVID-19 outcomes for elementary students, educators/staff, and their households is not well known. We used a previously published agent-based dynamic transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 in K-12 schools to simulate an elementary school with 638 students across 12 scenarios: combinations of three viral infectiousness levels (reflecting wild-type virus, alpha variant, and delta variant) and four student vaccination levels (0%, 25%, 50% and 70% coverage). For each scenario, we varied observed community COVID-19 incidence (0 to 50 cases/100,000 people/day) and mitigation effectiveness (0-100% reduction to in-school secondary attack rate), and evaluated two outcomes over a 30 day period: (1) the probability of at least one in-school transmission, and (2) average increase in total infections among students, educators/staff, and their household members associated with moving from more to less intensive mitigation measures. Over 30 days in the simulated elementary school, the probability of at least one in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the number of estimated additional infections in the immediate school community associated with changes in mitigation measures varied widely. In one scenario with the delta variant and no student vaccination, assuming that baseline mitigation measures of simple ventilation and handwashing reduce the secondary attack rate by 40%, if decision-makers seek to keep the monthly probability of an in-school transmission below 50%, additional mitigation (e.g., masking) would need to be added at a community incidence of approximately 2/100,000/day. Once students are vaccinated, thresholds shift substantially higher. The interpretation of model results should be limited by the uncertainty in many of the parameters, including the effectiveness of individual mitigation interventions and vaccine efficacy against the delta variant, and the limited scope of the model beyond the school community. Additionally, the assumed case detection rate (33% of cases detected) may be too high in areas with decreased testing capacity. Despite the assumption of high adult vaccination, the risks of both in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and resulting infections among students, educators/staff, and their household members remain high when the delta variant predominates and students are unvaccinated. Mitigation measures or vaccinations for students can substantially reduce these risks. These findings underscore the potential role for responsive plans, where mitigation is deployed based on local COVID-19 incidence and vaccine uptake.
| S-EPMC8609905 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundProspective cohort studies of SARS-CoV-2 incidence complement case-based surveillance and cross-sectional seroprevalence surveys.MethodsWe estimated the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a national cohort of 6,738 U.S. adults, enrolled March-August 2020. Using Poisson models, we examined the association of social distancing and a composite epidemiologic risk score with seroconversion. The risk score was created using LASSO regression to identify factors predictive of seroconversion. The selected factors were household crowding, confirmed case in household, indoor dining, gathering with groups ≥ 10, and no masking in gyms/salons.ResultsAmong 4,510 individuals with ≥1 serologic test, 323 (7.3%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.5%-8.1%) seroconverted by January 2021. Among 3,422 participants seronegative in May-September 2020 and retested during November 2020-January 2021, 161 seroconverted over 1,646 person-years of follow-up (9.8 per 100 person-years [95%CI 8.3-11.5]). Seroincidence rate was lower among females compared to males (IRR: 0.69, 95% CI 0.50-0.94) and higher among Hispanic (IRR: 2.09, 95% CI 1.41-3.05) participants compared to White non-Hispanic. In adjusted models, participants who reported social distancing with people they did not know (IRRalways vs. never: 0.42, 95% CI 0.20-1.0) and with people they knew (IRRalways vs. never 0.64, 95%CI 0.39-1.06; IRRsometimes vs. never 0.60, 95% CI 0.38-0.96) had lower seroconversion risk. Seroconversion risk increased with epidemiologic risk score (IRRmedium vs. low 1.68, 95% CI 1.03-2.81; IRRhigh vs. low 3.49, 95% CI 2.26-5.58). Only 29% of those who seroconverted reported isolating and 19% were asked about contacts.ConclusionModifiable risk factors and poor reach of public health strategies drove SARS-CoV-2 transmission across the U.S.
| S-EPMC9213857 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEpidemiologic risk factors for incident SARS-CoV-2 infection as determined via prospective cohort studies greatly augment and complement information from case-based surveillance and cross-sectional seroprevalence surveys.MethodsWe estimated the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and risk factors in a well-characterized, national prospective cohort of 6,738 U.S. adults, enrolled March-August 2020, a subset of whom (n=4,510) underwent repeat serologic testing between May 2020 and January 2021. We examined the crude associations of sociodemographic factors, epidemiologic risk factors, and county-level community transmission with the incidence of seroconversion. In multivariable Poisson models we examined the association of social distancing and a composite score of several epidemiologic risk factors with the rate of seroconversion.FindingsAmong the 4,510 individuals with at least one serologic test, 323 (7.3%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.5%-8.1%) seroconverted by January 2021. Among 3,422 participants seronegative in May-September 2020 and tested during November 2020-January 2021, we observed 161 seroconversions over 1,646 person-years of follow-up (incidence rate of 9.8 per 100 person-years [95%CI 8.3-11.5]). In adjusted models, participants who reported always or sometimes social distancing with people they knew (IRRalways vs. never 0.43, 95%CI 0.21-1.0; IRRsometimes vs. never 0.47, 95%CI 0.22-1.2) and people they did not know (IRRalways vs. never 0.64, 95%CI 0.39-1.1; IRRsometimes vs. never 0.60, 95%CI 0.38-0.97) had lower rates of seroconversion. The rate of seroconversion increased across tertiles of the composite score of epidemiologic risk (IRRmedium vs. low 1.5, 95%CI 0.92-2.4; IRRhigh vs. low 3.0, 95%CI 2.0-4.6). Among the 161 observed seroconversions, 28% reported no symptoms of COVID-like illness (i.e., were asymptomatic), and 27% reported a positive SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic test. Ultimately, only 29% reported isolating and 19% were asked about contacts.InterpretationModifiable epidemiologic risk factors and poor reach of public health strategies drove SARS-CoV-2 transmission across the U.S during May 2020-January 2021.FundingU.S. National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).
| S-EPMC7899475 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To address the need for simple, safe, sensitive, and scalable SARS-CoV-2 tests, we validated and implemented a PCR test that uses a saliva collection kit use at home. Individuals self-collected 300 μl saliva in vials containing Darnell Rockefeller University Laboratory (DRUL) buffer and extracted RNA was assayed by RT-PCR (the DRUL saliva assay). The limit of detection was confirmed to be 1 viral copy/μl in 20 of 20 replicate extractions. Viral RNA was stable in DRUL buffer at room temperature up to seven days after sample collection, and safety studies demonstrated that DRUL buffer immediately inactivated virus at concentrations up to 2.75x106 PFU/ml. Results from SARS-CoV-2 positive nasopharyngeal (NP) swab samples collected in viral transport media and assayed with a standard FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) test were highly correlated with samples placed in DRUL buffer. Direct comparison of results from 162 individuals tested by FDA EUA oropharyngeal (OP) or NP swabs with co-collected saliva samples identified four otherwise unidentified positive cases in DRUL buffer. Over six months, we collected 3,724 samples from individuals ranging from 3 months to 92 years of age. This included collecting weekly samples over 10 weeks from teachers, children, and parents from a pre-school program, which allowed its safe reopening while at-risk pods were quarantined. In sum, we validated a simple, sensitive, stable, and safe PCR-based test using a self-collected saliva sample as a valuable tool for clinical diagnosis and screening at workplaces and schools.
| S-EPMC8232451 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesPolicy decisions regarding mask wearing in schools in times of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will likely be made despite a lack of scientific data. Public acceptance is therefore an important indicator to inform the communication activities that accompany the introduction of a new policy. The goal was to assess acceptance and relevant target groups for communication activities.Study designCross-sectional online survey embedded in the regular German COVID-19 monitoring.MethodsBesides sociodemographic information, trust in institutions, knowledge about COVID-19 and protective behaviors, as well as risk perceptions, we assessed public acceptance of school-related mask policies of parents and non-parents (total N = 957).ResultsIn the absence of mandatory mask policies in schools in Germany in August 2020, the general agreement with mask wearing in school was low. Those living in bigger cities or communities - where class sizes are usually larger - agreed more with mask wearing in class; those who felt a greater risk, had greater trust in institutions, or felt higher self-efficacy in fighting the outbreak also wanted children to wear a mask in class. Women were more likely than men to disagree with mask wearing in class. Agreement was highest that policies should uniformly apply for all institutions within a state/province and should not be regulated at the school level or federal/country level.ConclusionsImplementing mask policies in school will require intense communication. Acceptance of these policies from teachers and pupils should be considered as well. Women seem to be an important target group as they supported mask wearing in class less than men. Women's roles in controlling infectious diseases in school should therefore receive special attention and support.
| S-EPMC8007211 | biostudies-literature
Project description:On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at »0.76 (95% CI 0.67-0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks.
| S-EPMC7774526 | biostudies-literature