Optimising health and economic impacts of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation strategies in the WHO European Region.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Liu Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8288152 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Optimising health and economic impacts of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation strategies in the WHO European Region.
Liu Yang Y Sandmann Frank G FG Barnard Rosanna C RC Pearson Carl A B CAB Pastore Roberta R Pebody Richard R Flasche Stefan S Jit Mark M
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20210714
<h4>Background</h4>Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region differ in terms of the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out speed. We evaluated the health and economic impact of different age-based vaccine prioritisation strategies across this demographically and socio-economically diverse region.<h4>Methods</h4>We fitted country-specific age-stratified compartmental transmission models to reported COVID-19 mortality in the WHO European Region to inform the immunity level before vaccine ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundCountries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region differ in terms of the COVID-19 vaccine supply conditions. We evaluated the health and economic impact of different age-based vaccine prioritisation strategies across this demographically and socio-economically diverse region.MethodsWe fitted age-specific compartmental models to the reported daily COVID-19 mortality in 2020 to inform the immunity level before vaccine roll-out. Models capture country-specific differences in population structures, contact patterns, epidemic history, life expectancy, and GDP per capita.We examined four strategies that prioritise: all adults (V+), younger (20-59 year-olds) followed by older adults (60+) (V20), older followed by younger adults (V60), and the oldest adults (75+) (V75) followed by incrementally younger age groups. We explored four roll-out scenarios (R1-4) - the slowest scenario (R1) reached 30% coverage by December 2022 and the fastest (R4) 80% by December 2021. Five decision-making metrics were summarised over 2021-22: mortality, morbidity, and losses in comorbidity-adjusted life expectancy, comorbidity- and quality-adjusted life years, and human capital. Six vaccine profiles were tested - the highest performing vaccine has 95% efficacy against both infection and disease, and the lowest 50% against diseases and 0% against infection.FindingsOf the 20 decision-making metrics and roll-out scenario combinations, the same optimal strategy applied to all countries in only one combination; V60 was more or similarly desirable than V75 in 19 combinations. Of the 38 countries with fitted models, 11-37 countries had variable optimal strategies by decision-making metrics or roll-out scenarios. There are greater benefits in prioritising older adults when roll-out is slow and when vaccine profiles are less favourable.InterpretationThe optimal age-based vaccine prioritisation strategies were sensitive to country characteristics, decision-making metrics, and roll-out speeds. A prioritisation strategy involving more age-based stages (V75) does not necessarily lead to better health and economic outcomes than targeting broad age groups (V60). Countries expecting a slow vaccine roll-out may particularly benefit from prioritising older adults.FundingWorld Health Organization, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Medical Research Council (United Kingdom), the National Institute of Health Research (United Kingdom), the European Commission, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (United Kingdom), Wellcome Trust.
| S-EPMC8629724 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), the causative agent of the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), is a highly transmittable virus. Since the first person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was reported in Italy on February 21st, 2020, the number of people infected with SARS-COV-2 increased rapidly, mainly in northern Italian regions, including Piedmont. A strict lockdown was imposed on March 21st until May 4th when a gradual relaxation of the restrictions started. In this context, computational models and computer simulations are one of the available research tools that epidemiologists can exploit to understand the spread of the diseases and to evaluate social measures to counteract, mitigate or delay the spread of the epidemic.MethodsThis study presents an extended version of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed-Susceptible (SEIRS) model accounting for population age structure. The infectious population is divided into three sub-groups: (i) undetected infected individuals, (ii) quarantined infected individuals and (iii) hospitalized infected individuals. Moreover, the strength of the government restriction measures and the related population response to these are explicitly represented in the model.ResultsThe proposed model allows us to investigate different scenarios of the COVID-19 spread in Piedmont and the implementation of different infection-control measures and testing approaches. The results show that the implemented control measures have proven effective in containing the epidemic, mitigating the potential dangerous impact of a large proportion of undetected cases. We also forecast the optimal combination of individual-level measures and community surveillance to contain the new wave of COVID-19 spread after the re-opening work and social activities.ConclusionsOur model is an effective tool useful to investigate different scenarios and to inform policy makers about the potential impact of different control strategies. This will be crucial in the upcoming months, when very critical decisions about easing control measures will need to be taken.
| S-EPMC7592194 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper provides a European-level analysis using a large-scale survey of 13 countries to examine the power of relevant economic and socio-demographic characteristics to account for changes in food consumption and purchasing behavior during COVID-19. This was done by focusing on a two-level analysis of subject-related predictors highlighted in many existing country-level studies to test the generality of their significance. The Level 1 predictors relate to the individual households participating in the survey consisting of household composition, education, and location, as well as three types of perceived COVID-19 risks of infection, severity, and anxiety. Level 2 relates to the national level, and especially to the financial situation measured by the mean national Actual Individual Consumption (AIC) per capita in PPP, of the countries, in which the households reside. In terms of changes in food consumption, results show that household composition, education, and the household's perceived risk of both being infected by COVID-19 and being severely infected are significant predictors, although there are some differences between the two levels. Some possible explanations are as follows: putting food into one's body in the context of the pandemic is related to a household's financial situation, its composition, especially the presence or absence of children and older people, and its educational attainment, and through all these aforementioned to the perception of COVID-19 infection and its severity risks. Changes in food purchasing react significantly to the same predictors, but additionally, to all other predictors at both household and AIC levels. The household's location and perceived COVID-19 anxiety risks are thus also significant. Food purchasing depends much more on factors operating both at the individual household level and the AIC level together; for example, households' access to food is affected by both national and local lockdown restrictions that vary according to the location of the household.
| S-EPMC9382126 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper proposes a joint model by combining the time-varying coefficient susceptible-infected-removal model with the hierarchical Bayesian vector autoregression model. This model establishes the relationship between several critical macroeconomic variables and pandemic transmission states and performs economic predictions under two predefined pandemic scenarios. The empirical part of the model predicts the economic recovery of several countries severely affected by COVID-19 (e.g., the United States and India, among others). Under the proposed pandemic scenarios, economies tend to recover rather than fall into prolonged recessions. The economy recovers faster in the scenario where the COVID-19 pandemic is controlled.
| S-EPMC8894293 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHow best to prioritise COVID-19 vaccination within and between countries has been a public health and an ethical challenge for decision-makers globally. We reviewed epidemiological and economic modelling evidence on population priority groups to minimise COVID-19 mortality, transmission, and morbidity outcomes.MethodsWe searched the National Institute of Health iSearch COVID-19 Portfolio (a database of peer-reviewed and pre-print articles), Econlit, the Centre for Economic Policy Research, and the National Bureau of Economic Research for mathematical modelling studies evaluating the impact of prioritising COVID-19 vaccination to population target groups. The first search was conducted on March 3, 2021, and an updated search on the LMIC literature was conducted from March 3, 2021, to September 24, 2021. We narratively synthesised the main study conclusions on prioritisation and the conditions under which the conclusions changed.ResultsThe initial search identified 1820 studies and 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. The updated search on LMIC literature identified 7 more studies. 43 studies in total were narratively synthesised. 74% of studies described outcomes in high-income countries (single and multi-country). We found that for countries seeking to minimise deaths, prioritising vaccination of senior adults was the optimal strategy and for countries seeking to minimise cases the young were prioritised. There were several exceptions to the main conclusion, notably that reductions in deaths could be increased if groups at high risk of both transmission and death could be further identified. Findings were also sensitive to the level of vaccine coverage.ConclusionThe evidence supports WHO SAGE recommendations on COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation. There is, however, an evidence gap on optimal prioritisation for low- and middle-income countries, studies that included an economic evaluation, and studies that explore prioritisation strategies if the aim is to reduce overall health burden including morbidity.
| S-EPMC8632563 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the last two years, the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been a scientific and social challenge worldwide. Vaccines have been the most effective intervention for reducing virus transmission and disease severity. However, virus genetic variants are still circulating among vaccinated individuals with different symptomatology disease cases. Understanding the protective or disease associated mechanisms in vaccinated individuals is relevant to advance in vaccine development and implementation. To address this objective, serum protein profiles were characterized by quantitative proteomics and data analysis algorithms in four cohorts of vaccinated individuals uninfected and SARS-CoV-2 infected with asymptomatic, nonsevere and severe disease symptomatology. The results showed that immunoglobulins were the most overrepresented proteins in infected cohorts when compared to PCR-negative individuals. The immunoglobulin profile varied between different infected cohorts and correlated with protective or disease associated capacity. Overrepresented immunoglobulins in PCR-positive individuals correlated with protective response against SARS-CoV-2, other viruses, and thrombosis in asymptomatic cases. In nonsevere cases, correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 and HBV together with risk of myasthenia gravis and allergy and autoantibodies were observed. Patients with severe symptoms presented risk for allergy, chronic idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, and autoantibodies. The analysis of underrepresented immunoglobulins in PCR-positive compared to PCR-negative individuals identified vaccine-induced protective epitopes in various coronavirus proteins including the Spike receptor-binding domain RBD. Non-immunoglobulin proteins were associated with COVID-19 symptoms and biological processes. These results evidence host-associated differences in response to vaccination and the possibility of improving vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2.
2022-10-14 | PXD031969 | Pride
Project description:The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the most formidable challenge to humanity in a century. It is widely believed that prepandemic normalcy will never return until a safe and effective vaccine strategy becomes available and a global vaccination programme is implemented successfully. Here, we discuss the immunological principles that need to be taken into consideration in the development of COVID-19 vaccine strategies. On the basis of these principles, we examine the current COVID-19 vaccine candidates, their strengths and potential shortfalls, and make inferences about their chances of success. Finally, we discuss the scientific and practical challenges that will be faced in the process of developing a successful vaccine and the ways in which COVID-19 vaccine strategies may evolve over the next few years.
| S-EPMC7472682 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented disruption in tourism spending. This has propagated through the whole economy, however the scale of these system-wide consequences can be hard to quantify. We calculate direct reductions in spending across domestic and inbound tourism categories and then use a computable general equilibrium model to quantify their economic impacts. The results – illustrated using a model for Scotland and focusing on 2021 - demonstrate the scale of the losses in the tourism industry and the economy as a whole that are attributable to changes in both domestic and inbound tourism demand. We find that the extent to which domestic tourism demand can mitigate the losses in inbound spending depends on the composition of demand.
| S-EPMC9550666 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant is capable of infecting vaccinated persons. An open question remains as to whether deficiencies in specific vaccine-elicited immune responses result in susceptibility to vaccine breakthrough infection. We investigated 55 vaccine breakthrough infection cases (mostly Delta) in Singapore, comparing them against 86 vaccinated close contacts who did not contract infection. Vaccine breakthrough cases showed lower memory B cell frequencies against SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (RBD). Compared to plasma antibodies, antibodies secreted by memory B cells retained a higher fraction of neutralizing properties against the Delta variant. Inflammatory cytokines including IL-1β and TNF were lower in vaccine breakthrough infections than primary infection of similar disease severity, underscoring the usefulness of vaccination in preventing inflammation. This report highlights the importance of memory B cells against vaccine breakthrough, and suggests that lower memory B cell levels may be a correlate of risk for Delta vaccine breakthrough infection.
| S-SCDT-EMM-2021-15227 | biostudies-other
Project description:IntroductionPeople living with HIV (PLWH) are at higher risk of poorer COVID-19 outcomes. Vaccination is a safe and effective method of prevention against many infectious diseases, including COVID-19. Here we investigate the strategies for national COVID-19 vaccination programmes across central and eastern Europe and the inclusion of PLWH in vaccination programmes.MethodsThe Euroguidelines in Central and Eastern Europe Network Group consists of experts in the field of infectious diseases from 24 countries in the region. Between 1 November 2020 and 19 March 2021 the group proceeded an on-line survey consisting of 20 questions.ResultsTwenty-two countries (out of 24 invited) participated in the survey and 20/22 countries in the period between December 2020 and March 2021 had already started their COVID-19 vaccination programme. In total, seven different vaccines were used by participating countries. In 17/21 countries (81%), vaccinated persons were centralized within the national registry. In 8/21 countries (38%) PLWH were prioritized for vaccination (the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Lithuania, Montenegro, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) and the Czech Republic, Greece and Serbia had put in place national guidelines for vaccination of PLWH. In 14/20 countries (70%) vaccination was only provided by designated centres. Eighteen respondents (18/21; 85.7%) reported that they planned to follow up HIV patients vaccinated against COVID-19, mainly by measuring antibody levels and checking COVID-19 incidence (11/21; 52.3%).ConclusionsThis survey-based study suggests that there are significant differences in terms of prioritizing PLWH, the types of vaccines used, vaccination coverage, and the development and implementation of a vaccination programmes within the region. Regardless of heterogenicity and existing barriers within the region, systematic vaccination in PLWH should have the highest priority, especially in those with severe immunodeficiency, risk factors, and in the elderly, aiming for prompt and high vaccination coverage.
| S-EPMC8653080 | biostudies-literature