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Predictability of real temporal networks.

ABSTRACT: Links in most real networks often change over time. Such temporality of links encodes the ordering and causality of interactions between nodes and has a profound effect on network dynamics and function. Empirical evidence has shown that the temporal nature of links in many real-world networks is not random. Nonetheless, it is challenging to predict temporal link patterns while considering the entanglement between topological and temporal link patterns. Here, we propose an entropy-rate-based framework, based on combined topological-temporal regularities, for quantifying the predictability of any temporal network. We apply our framework on various model networks, demonstrating that it indeed captures the intrinsic topological-temporal regularities whereas previous methods considered only temporal aspects. We also apply our framework on 18 real networks of different types and determine their predictability. Interestingly, we find that, for most real temporal networks, despite the greater complexity of predictability brought by the increase in dimension, the combined topological-temporal predictability is higher than the temporal predictability. Our results demonstrate the necessity for incorporating both temporal and topological aspects of networks in order to improve predictions of dynamical processes.

SUBMITTER: Tang D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8288877 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictability of real temporal networks.

Tang Disheng D Du Wenbo W Shekhtman Louis L Wang Yijie Y Havlin Shlomo S Cao Xianbin X Yan Gang G

National science review 20200210 5

Links in most real networks often change over time. Such temporality of links encodes the ordering and causality of interactions between nodes and has a profound effect on network dynamics and function. Empirical evidence has shown that the temporal nature of links in many real-world networks is not random. Nonetheless, it is challenging to predict temporal link patterns while considering the entanglement between topological and temporal link patterns. Here, we propose an entropy-rate-based fram ...[more]

PMID: 34692113

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Project description:BackgroundTemporal and spatial predictability of food resources are critical to the foraging efficiency of central place foragers. While site fidelity is often assessed in this context, route fidelity, or the repeated use of the same path while traveling, and temporal aspects of habitat predictability have received less attention. We examined how the use of urban, coastal, and offshore habitats influenced spatiotemporal predictability in the foraging patterns of herring gulls (Larus argentatus) and great black-backed gulls (L. marinus). Since gulls show higher site fidelity when foraging in urban habitats, we predicted that these trips would also show higher route fidelity. Similarly, we predicted that gulls foraging in coastal habitats would adapt the timing of foraging trips relative to tides.MethodsWe analyzed GPS tracks of herring gulls (n = 79) and great black-backed gulls (n = 37)-between 2016-2022 from four nesting colonies whose surrounding areas varied in their degree of urbanization. Fréchet distance, which is defined as the repeated use of the same path while traveling, was used to assess route fidelity, within colonies and between habitat types. We also compared the consistency of foraging trip timing relative to tidal stage and day of week, respectively, across habitat types.ResultsNeither herring nor great black-backed gulls showed higher route fidelity in urban habitats. Herring gulls showed direct travel between urban foraging sites but revisited sites in different orders, suggesting that a mosaic map may be used to navigate between known urban foraging sites. Herring and great black-backed gulls that foraged at coastal sites exhibited patterns in trip timing in relation to the tidal cycle, with foraging primarily occurring at or around low tide. Herring gulls in urban environments foraged more on Fridays and weekends, possibly due to increased or altered human activities on these days.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate the importance of spatial memory and spatiotemporal predictability of gull foraging habitats and highlight the extent to which gulls adjust their movements based on their foraging habitats.

Project description:Sounds following a cue or embedded in a periodic rhythm are processed more effectively than sounds that are part of an aperiodic rhythm. One might also expect that a sound embedded in a periodic rhythm is processed more effectively than a sound following a single temporal cue. Such a finding would follow the theory that the entrainment of neural rhythmic activity by periodic stimuli renders the prediction of upcoming stimuli more efficient. We conducted a psychophysical experiment in which we tested the behavioral elements of this idea. Targets in periodic and aperiodic rhythms, if they occurred, always appeared at the same moment in time, and thus were fully predictable. In a first condition, participants remained unaware of this. In a second condition, an explicit instruction on the temporal location of the targets embedded in rhythms was provided. We assessed sensitivity and reaction times to the target stimuli in a difficult temporal detection task, and contrasted performance in this task to that obtained for targets temporally cued by a single preceding cue. Irrespective of explicit information about target predictability, target detection performance was always better in the periodic and temporal cue conditions, compared to the aperiodic condition. However, we found that the mere predictability of an acoustic target within a periodic rhythm did not allow participants to detect the target any better than in a condition where the target's timing was predicted by a single temporal cue. Only when participants were made aware of the specific moment in the periodic rhythm where the target could occur, did sensitivity increase. This finding suggests that a periodic rhythm is not automatically sufficient to provide perceptual benefits compared to a condition predictable yet not rhythmic condition (a cue). In some conditions, as shown here, these benefits may only occur in interaction with other factors such as explicit instruction and directed attention.

Project description:BackgroundChanges in human-induced resource availability can alter the behaviour of free-living species and affect their foraging strategies. The future European Landfill Waste Directive and Circular Economy Action Plan will reduce the number of predictable anthropogenic food subsidies (PAFS), above all, by closing landfills to preclude negative effects on human health. Obligate avian scavengers, the most threatened group of birds worldwide, are the most likely group of species that will be forced to change their behaviour and use of space in response to landfill site closures. Here, we examine the possible consequences of these management decisions on the foraging patterns of Egyptian vultures (Neophron percnopterus) in an expanding population in the Iberian Peninsula.MethodsWe tracked 16 individuals in 2018-2021, including breeders and non-breeders, and, using a combination of spatial-use and spatial-network modelling, assessed landscape connectivity between key resources based on movement patterns. We then carried out simulations of future scenarios based on the loss of PAFS to predict likely changes in the movement patterns of both non-breeders and breeders.ResultsOur results show that foraging strategies in non-breeders and breeders differ significantly: non-breeders performed more dispersal movements than breeding birds across a spatial-use network. Non-breeding and breeding networks were found to be vulnerable to the removal of central foraging areas containing landfill sites, a highly predictable resource, while perturbation analysis showed dissimilar foraging responses to the gradual reduction of other predictable resources. Under a context of the non-availability of landfills for breeders and non-breeders, vultures will increase their use of extensive livestock as a trophic resource.ConclusionsFuture environmental policies should thus extend the areas used by scavengers in which livestock carcasses are allowed to remain in the wild, a strategy that will also mitigate the lack of food caused by any reduction in available waste if landfills close. In general, our results emphasize the capabilities of a spatial network approaches to address questions on movement ecology. They can be used to infer the behavioural response of animal species and, also demonstrate the importance of applying such approaches to endangered species conservation within a context of changing humanized scenarios.

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Predictability of real temporal networks.

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Predictability of real temporal networks.

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