The effect of human mobility restrictions on the COVID-19 transmission network in China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

COVID-19 poses a severe threat worldwide. This study analyzes its propagation and evaluates statistically the effect of mobility restriction policies on the spread of the disease.

Methods

We apply a variation of the stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model to describe the temporal-spatial evolution of the disease across 33 provincial regions in China, where the disease was first identified. We employ Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods to estimate the model and to characterize a dynamic transmission network, which enables us to evaluate the effectiveness of various local and national policies.

Results

The spread of the disease in China was predominantly driven by community transmission within regions, which dropped substantially after local g

SUBMITTER: Oka T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8289089 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature