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Improving pandemic mitigation policies across communities through coupled dynamics of risk perception and infection.

ABSTRACT: Capturing the coupled dynamics between individual behavioural decisions that affect disease transmission and the epidemiology of outbreaks is critical to pandemic mitigation strategy. We develop a multiplex network approach to model how adherence to health-protective behaviours that impact COVID-19 spread are shaped by perceived risks and resulting community norms. We focus on three synergistic dynamics governing individual behavioural choices: (i) social construction of concern, (ii) awareness of disease incidence, and (iii) reassurance by lack of disease. We show why policies enacted early or broadly can cause communities to become reassured and therefore unwilling to maintain or adopt actions. Public health policies for which success relies on collective action should therefore exploit the behaviourally receptive phase; the period between the generation of sufficient concern to foster adoption of novel actions and the relaxation of adherence driven by reassurance fostered by avoidance of negative outcomes over time.

SUBMITTER: Silk MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8292781 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Improving pandemic mitigation policies across communities through coupled dynamics of risk perception and infection.

Silk M J MJ Carrignon S S Bentley R A RA Fefferman N H NH

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20210721 1955

Capturing the coupled dynamics between individual behavioural decisions that affect disease transmission and the epidemiology of outbreaks is critical to pandemic mitigation strategy. We develop a multiplex network approach to model how adherence to health-protective behaviours that impact COVID-19 spread are shaped by perceived risks and resulting community norms. We focus on three synergistic dynamics governing individual behavioural choices: (i) social construction of concern, (ii) awareness ...[more]

PMID: 34284634

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Project description:BackgroundSocial distancing policies were of utmost importance during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. These policies aimed to mitigate the severity of local outbreaks by altering public behavior. However, if the severity of the pandemic reduces, the impact of these policies on actual behavior may decrease. This study aims to examine, from a global perspective, whether the impact of social distancing policies on actual mobility is moderated by local pandemic severity and whether this moderating effect varies across cultural value contexts.MethodsWe combined multiple publicly available global datasets for structural equation model analysis. 17,513 rows of data from 57 countries included in all databases were analyzed. Multilevel moderated moderation models were constructed to test the hypotheses.ResultsMore stringent policies in a region mean less regional mobility (β = -0.572, p < 0.001). However, the severity of local outbreaks negatively moderated this effect (β = -0.114, p < 0.001). When the pandemic was not severe, the influence of policy intensity on mobility weakened. Furthermore, based on Schwartz's cultural values theory, cultural values of autonomy (β = -0.109, p = 0.011), and egalitarianism (β = -0.108, p = 0.019) reinforced the moderating effect of pandemic severity. On the other hand, cultural values of embeddedness (β = 0.119, p = 0.006) and hierarchy (β = 0.096, p = 0.029) attenuated the moderating effect.ConclusionsSocial distancing policies aim to reduce the severity of local pandemics; however, the findings reveal that mitigating local pandemics may reduce their impact. Future policymakers should be alert to this phenomenon and introduce appropriate incentives to respond. The results also show that the moderating role of pandemic severity varies across cultures. When policies are promoted to deal with global crises, policymakers must seriously consider the resistance and potential incentives of cultural values.

Project description:IntroductionResponsible governance is crucial to national development and a catalyst for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. To date, governance seems to have been a neglected issue in the field of human resources for health (HRH), which could be an important reason why HRH policy formulation and implementation is often poor. This article aims to describe how governance issues have influenced HRH policy development and to identify governance strategies that have been used, successfully or not, to improve HRH policy implementation in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC).MethodsWe performed a descriptive literature review of HRH case studies which describe or evaluate a governance-related intervention at country or district level in LMIC. In order to systematically address the term 'governance' a framework was developed and governance aspects were regrouped into four dimensions: 'performance', 'equity and equality', 'partnership and participation' and 'oversight'.Results and discussionIn total 16 case studies were included in the review and most of the selected studies covered several governance dimensions. The dimension 'performance' covered several elements at the core of governance of HRH, decentralization being particularly prominent. Although improved equity and/or equality was, in a number of interventions, a goal, inclusiveness in policy development and fairness and transparency in policy implementation did often not seem adequate to guarantee the corresponding desirable health workforce scenario. Forms of partnership and participation described in the case studies are numerous and offer different lessons. Strikingly, in none of the articles was 'partnerships' a core focus. A common theme in the dimension of 'oversight' is local-level corruption, affecting, amongst other things, accountability and local-level trust in governance, and its cultural guises. Experiences with accountability mechanisms for HRH policy development and implementation were lacking.ConclusionThis review shows that the term 'governance' is neither prominent nor frequent in recent HRH literature. It provides initial lessons regarding the influence of governance on HRH policy development and implementation. The review also shows that the evidence base needs to be improved in this field in order to better understand how governance influences HRH policy development and implementation. Tentative lessons are discussed, based on the case studies.

Dataset Information

Improving pandemic mitigation policies across communities through coupled dynamics of risk perception and infection.

Publications

Improving pandemic mitigation policies across communities through coupled dynamics of risk perception and infection.

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