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Equilibrium Allocations under Alternative Waitlist Designs: Evidence from Deceased Donor Kidneys Kidneys.

ABSTRACT: Waitlists are often used to ration scarce resources, but the trade-offs in designing these mechanisms depend on agents' preferences. We study equilibrium allocations under alternative designs for the deceased donor kidney waitlist. We model the decision to accept an organ or wait for a preferable one as an optimal stopping problem and estimate preferences using administrative data from the New York City area. Our estimates show that while some kidney types are desirable for all patients, there is substantial match-specific heterogeneity in values. We then develop methods to evaluate alternative mechanisms, comparing their effects on patient welfare to an equivalent change in donor supply. Past reforms to the kidney waitlist primarily resulted in redistribution, with similar welfare and organ discard rates to the benchmark first come first served mechanism. These mechanisms and other commonly studied theoretical benchmarks remain far from optimal. We design a mechanism that increases patient welfare by the equivalent of an 18.2 percent increase in donor supply.

SUBMITTER: Agarwal N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8294653 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Equilibrium Allocations under Alternative Waitlist Designs: Evidence from Deceased Donor Kidneys Kidneys.

Agarwal Nikhil N Ashlagi Itai I Rees Michael M Somaini Paulo P Waldinger Daniel D

Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society 20210115 1

Waitlists are often used to ration scarce resources, but the trade-offs in designing these mechanisms depend on agents' preferences. We study equilibrium allocations under alternative designs for the deceased donor kidney waitlist. We model the decision to accept an organ or wait for a preferable one as an optimal stopping problem and estimate preferences using administrative data from the New York City area. Our estimates show that while some kidney types are desirable for all patients, there i ...[more]

PMID: 34294944

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Project description:Background and objectivesBiopsies taken at deceased donor kidney procurement continue to be cited as a leading reason for discard; however, the reproducibility and prognostic capability of these biopsies are controversial.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe compiled a retrospective, single-institution, continuous cohort of deceased donor kidney transplants performed from 2006 to 2009. Procurement biopsy information-percentage of glomerulosclerosis, interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy, and vascular disease-was obtained from the national transplant database. Using univariable, multivariable, and time-to-event analyses for death-censored graft survival, we compared procurement frozen section biopsy reports with reperfusion paraffin-embedded biopsies read by trained kidney pathologists (n=270). We also examined agreement for sequential procurement biopsies performed on the same kidney (n=116 kidneys).ResultsFor kidneys on which more than one procurement biopsy was performed (n=116), category agreement was found in only 64% of cases (κ=0.14). For all kidneys (n=270), correlation between procurement and reperfusion biopsies was poor: overall, biopsies were classified into the same category (optimal versus suboptimal) in only 64% of cases (κ=0.25). This discrepancy was most pronounced when categorizing percentage of glomerulosclerosis, which had 63% agreement (κ=0.15). Interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy and vascular disease had agreement rates of 82% (κ=0.13) and 80% (κ=0.15), respectively. Ninety-eight (36%) recipients died, and 56 (21%) allografts failed by the end of follow-up. Reperfusion biopsies were more prognostic than procurement biopsies (hazard ratio for graft failure, 2.02; 95% confidence interval, 1.09 to 3.74 versus hazard ratio for graft failure, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.61 to 2.76), with procurement biopsies not significantly associated with graft failure.ConclusionsWe found that procurement biopsies are poorly reproducible, do not correlate well with paraffin-embedded reperfusion biopsies, and are not significantly associated with transplant outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundThe use of expanded criteria donor kidneys (ECD) had been associated with worse outcomes. Whole gene expression of pre-implantation allograft biopsies from deceased donor kidneys (DDKs) was evaluated to compare the effect of pulsatile pump preservation (PPP) vs. cold storage preservation (CSP) on standard and ECD kidneys.Methodology/principal findings99 pre-implantation DDK biopsies were studied using gene expression with GeneChips. Kidneys transplant recipients were followed post transplantation for 35.8 months (range = 24-62). The PPP group included 60 biopsies (cold ischemia time (CIT) = 1,367+/-509 minutes) and the CSP group included 39 biopsies (CIT = 1,022+/-485 minutes) (P<0.001). Donor age (42.0±14.6 vs. 34.1±14.2 years, P = 0.009) and the percentage of ECD kidneys (PPP = 35% vs. CSP = 12.8%, P = 0.012) were significantly different between groups. A two-sample t-test was performed, and probe sets having a P<0.001 were considered significant. Probe set level linear models were fit using cold ischemia time and CSP/PPP as independent variables to determine significant probe sets (P<0.001) between groups after adjusting for cold ischemia time. Thus, 43 significant genes were identified (P<0.001). Over-expression of genes associated with inflammation (CD86, CD209, CLEC4, EGFR2, TFF3, among others) was observed in the CSP group. Cell-to-cell signaling and interaction, and antigen presentation were the most important pathways with genes significantly over-expressed in CSP kidneys. When the analysis was restricted to ECD kidneys, genes involved in inflammation were also differentially up-regulated in ECD kidneys undergoing CSP. However, graft survival at the end of the study was similar between groups (P = 0.2). Moreover, the incidence of delayed graft function was not significant between groups.Conclusions/significanceInflammation was the most important up-regulated pattern associated with pre-implantation biopsies undergoing CSP even when the PPP group has a larger number of ECD kidneys. No significant difference was observed in delayed graft function incidence and graft function post-transplantation. These findings support the use of PPP in ECD donor kidneys.

Project description:Background and objectivesUse of diabetic donor kidneys has been a necessary response to the donor organ shortage. Recipients of diabetic donor kidneys have higher mortality risk compared with recipients of nondiabetic donor kidneys. However, the survival benefit of transplantation with diabetic donor kidneys over remaining on the waitlist has not been previously evaluated.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe performed an observational cohort study of 437,619 kidney transplant candidates from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database, including 8101 recipients of diabetic donor kidneys and 126,560 recipients of nondiabetic donor kidneys. We used time-varying Cox proportional hazards modeling to assess the mortality risk of accepting a diabetic donor kidney compared with remaining on the waitlist or receiving a nondiabetic donor kidney.ResultsAmong transplant recipients, median follow-up was 8.9 years and mortality rate was 35 deaths per 1000 person-years. Recipients of diabetic donor kidneys had 9% lower mortality compared with remaining on the waitlist or transplantation with a nondiabetic donor kidney (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.84 to 0.98). Although recipients of nondiabetic donor kidneys with a Kidney Donor Profile Index score >85% had lower mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.81 to 0.91), recipients of diabetic donor kidneys with an index score >85% did not show any difference (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.22). Patients aged <40 years attained no survival benefit from transplantation with diabetic donor kidneys; diabetic patients at centers with long waitlist times attained the greatest survival benefit.ConclusionsDiabetic donor kidneys appear associated with higher mortality risk compared with nondiabetic donor kidneys, but offer greater survival benefit compared with remaining on the waitlist for many candidates. Patients with high risk of mortality on the waitlist at centers with long wait times appear to benefit most from transplantation with diabetic donor kidneys.

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Equilibrium Allocations under Alternative Waitlist Designs: Evidence from Deceased Donor Kidneys Kidneys.

Publications

Equilibrium Allocations under Alternative Waitlist Designs: Evidence from Deceased Donor Kidneys Kidneys.

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