Dataset Information

Emergency teleradiological activity is an epidemiological estimator and predictor of the covid-19 pandemic in mainland France.

ABSTRACT:

Background

COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for real-time monitoring of diseases evolution to rapidly adapt restrictive measures. This prospective multicentric study aimed at investigating radiological markers of COVID-19-related emergency activity as global estimators of pandemic evolution in France. We incorporated two sources of data from March to November 2020: an open-source epidemiological dataset, collecting daily hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions, hospital deaths and discharges, and a teleradiology dataset corresponding to the weekly number of CT-scans performed in 65 emergency centres and interpreted remotely. CT-scans specifically requested for COVID-19 suspicion were monitored. Teleradiological and epidemiological time series were aligned. Their relationships were estimated through a cross-correlation function, and their extremes and breakpoints were compared. Dynamic linear models were trained to forecast the weekly hospitalisations based on teleradiological activity predictors.

Results

A total of 100,018 CT-scans were included over 36 weeks, and 19,133 (19%) performed within the COVID-19 workflow. Concomitantly, 227,677 hospitalisations were reported. Teleradiological and epidemiological time series were almost perfectly superimposed (cross-correlation coefficients at lag 0: 0.90-0.92). Maximal number of COVID-19 CT-scans was reached the week of 2020-03-23 (1 086 CT-scans), 1 week before the highest hospitalisations (23,542 patients). The best valid forecasting model combined the number of COVID-19 CT-scans and the number of hospitalisations during the prior two weeks and provided the lowest mean absolute percentage (5.09%, testing period: 2020-11-02 to 2020-11-29).

Conclusion

Monitoring COVID-19 CT-scan activity in emergencies accurately and instantly predicts hospitalisations and helps adjust medical resources, paving the way for complementary public health indicators.

SUBMITTER: Crombe A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8295630 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Emergency teleradiological activity is an epidemiological estimator and predictor of the covid-19 pandemic in mainland France.

Crombé Amandine A Lecomte Jean-Christophe JC Banaste Nathan N Tazarourte Karim K Seux Mylène M Nivet Hubert H Thomson Vivien V Gorincour Guillaume G

Insights into imaging 20210722 1

<h4>Background</h4>COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for real-time monitoring of diseases evolution to rapidly adapt restrictive measures. This prospective multicentric study aimed at investigating radiological markers of COVID-19-related emergency activity as global estimators of pandemic evolution in France. We incorporated two sources of data from March to November 2020: an open-source epidemiological dataset, collecting daily hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions, hospital de ...[more]

PMID: 34292414

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The various epidemiological indicators used to communicate the impact of COVID-19 have different strengths and limitations. METHODS:We conducted a selective literature review to identify the indicators used and to derive appropriate definitions. We calculated crude and age-adjusted indicators for selected countries. RESULTS:The proportion of deaths (case fatality proportion [CFP]; number of deaths/ total number of cases) is commonly used to estimate the severity of a disease. If the CFP is used for purposes of comparison, the existence of heterogeneity in the detection and registration of cases and deaths has to be taken into account. In the early phase of an epidemic, when case numbers rise rapidly, the CFP suffers from bias. For these reasons, variants have been proposed: the "confirmed CFP" (number of deaths/total number of confirmed cases), and the "delay-adjusted CFP," which considers the delay between infection with the disease and death from the disease. The indicator mortality (number of deaths/total population) has at first sight the advantage of being based on a defined denominator, the total population. During the outbreak of a disease, however, the cumulative deaths rise while the total population remains stable. The phase of the epidemic therefore has to be considered when using this indicator. In this context, R0 and R(t) are important indicators. R0 estimates the maximum rate of spread of a disease in a population, while R(t) describes the dynamics of the epidemic at a given time. Age-adjusted analysis of the CFP shows that the differences between countries decrease but do not dis - appear completely. If the test strategies depend on age or symptom severity, however, the bias cannot be entirely eliminated. CONCLUSION:Various indicators of the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic at population level are used in daily communication. Considering the relevance of the pandemic and the importance of relevant communications, however, the strengths and the limitations of each parameter must be considered carefully.

Dataset Information

Emergency teleradiological activity is an epidemiological estimator and predictor of the covid-19 pandemic in mainland France.

Background

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Emergency teleradiological activity is an epidemiological estimator and predictor of the covid-19 pandemic in mainland France.

Similar Datasets

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