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Efficient Shapley Explanation For Features Importance Estimation Under Uncertainty.

ABSTRACT: Complex deep learning models have shown their impressive power in analyzing high-dimensional medical image data. To increase the trust of applying deep learning models in medical field, it is essential to understand why a particular prediction was reached. Data feature importance estimation is an important approach to understand both the model and the underlying properties of data. Shapley value explanation (SHAP) is a technique to fairly evaluate input feature importance of a given model. However, the existing SHAP-based explanation works have limitations such as 1) computational complexity, which hinders their applications on high-dimensional medical image data; 2) being sensitive to noise, which can lead to serious errors. Therefore, we propose an uncertainty estimation method for the feature importance results calculated by SHAP. Then we theoretically justify the methods under a Shapley value framework. Finally we evaluate our methods on MNIST and a public neuroimaging dataset. We show the potential of our method to discover disease related biomarkers from neuroimaging data.

SUBMITTER: Li X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8299327 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Efficient Shapley Explanation For Features Importance Estimation Under Uncertainty.

Li Xiaoxiao X Zhou Yuan Y Dvornek Nicha C NC Gu Yufeng Y Ventola Pamela P Duncan James S JS

Medical image computing and computer-assisted intervention : MICCAI ... International Conference on Medical Image Computing and Computer-Assisted Intervention 20200929

Complex deep learning models have shown their impressive power in analyzing high-dimensional medical image data. To increase the trust of applying deep learning models in medical field, it is essential to understand why a particular prediction was reached. Data feature importance estimation is an important approach to understand both the model and the underlying properties of data. Shapley value explanation (SHAP) is a technique to fairly evaluate input feature importance of a given model. Howev ...[more]

PMID: 34308439

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Project description:Taking parameter uncertainty into account is key to make drug development decisions such as testing whether trial endpoints meet defined criteria. Currently used methods for assessing parameter uncertainty in NLMEM have limitations, and there is a lack of diagnostics for when these limitations occur. In this work, a method based on sampling importance resampling (SIR) is proposed, which has the advantage of being free of distributional assumptions and does not require repeated parameter estimation. To perform SIR, a high number of parameter vectors are simulated from a given proposal uncertainty distribution. Their likelihood given the true uncertainty is then approximated by the ratio between the likelihood of the data given each vector and the likelihood of each vector given the proposal distribution, called the importance ratio. Non-parametric uncertainty distributions are obtained by resampling parameter vectors according to probabilities proportional to their importance ratios. Two simulation examples and three real data examples were used to define how SIR should be performed with NLMEM and to investigate the performance of the method. The simulation examples showed that SIR was able to recover the true parameter uncertainty. The real data examples showed that parameter 95 % confidence intervals (CI) obtained with SIR, the covariance matrix, bootstrap and log-likelihood profiling were generally in agreement when 95 % CI were symmetric. For parameters showing asymmetric 95 % CI, SIR 95 % CI provided a close agreement with log-likelihood profiling but often differed from bootstrap 95 % CI which had been shown to be suboptimal for the chosen examples. This work also provides guidance towards the SIR workflow, i.e.,which proposal distribution to choose and how many parameter vectors to sample when performing SIR, using diagnostics developed for this purpose. SIR is a promising approach for assessing parameter uncertainty as it is applicable in many situations where other methods for assessing parameter uncertainty fail, such as in the presence of small datasets, highly nonlinear models or meta-analysis.

Project description:BackgroundGenerally, QSAR modelling requires both model selection and validation since there is no a priori knowledge about the optimal QSAR model. Prediction errors (PE) are frequently used to select and to assess the models under study. Reliable estimation of prediction errors is challenging - especially under model uncertainty - and requires independent test objects. These test objects must not be involved in model building nor in model selection. Double cross-validation, sometimes also termed nested cross-validation, offers an attractive possibility to generate test data and to select QSAR models since it uses the data very efficiently. Nevertheless, there is a controversy in the literature with respect to the reliability of double cross-validation under model uncertainty. Moreover, systematic studies investigating the adequate parameterization of double cross-validation are still missing. Here, the cross-validation design in the inner loop and the influence of the test set size in the outer loop is systematically studied for regression models in combination with variable selection.MethodsSimulated and real data are analysed with double cross-validation to identify important factors for the resulting model quality. For the simulated data, a bias-variance decomposition is provided.ResultsThe prediction errors of QSAR/QSPR regression models in combination with variable selection depend to a large degree on the parameterization of double cross-validation. While the parameters for the inner loop of double cross-validation mainly influence bias and variance of the resulting models, the parameters for the outer loop mainly influence the variability of the resulting prediction error estimate.ConclusionsDouble cross-validation reliably and unbiasedly estimates prediction errors under model uncertainty for regression models. As compared to a single test set, double cross-validation provided a more realistic picture of model quality and should be preferred over a single test set.

Dataset Information

Efficient Shapley Explanation For Features Importance Estimation Under Uncertainty.

Publications

Efficient Shapley Explanation For Features Importance Estimation Under Uncertainty.

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