Potential impact of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission in Malawi: a mathematical modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

COVID-19 mitigation strategies have been challenging to implement in resource-limited settings due to the potential for widespread disruption to social and economic well-being. Here we predict the clinical severity of COVID-19 in Malawi, quantifying the potential impact of intervention strategies and increases in health system capacity.

Methods

The infection fatality ratios (IFR) were predicted by adjusting reported IFR for China, accounting for demography, the current prevalence of comorbidities and health system capacity. These estimates were input into an age-structured deterministic model, which simulated the epidemic trajectory with non-pharmaceutical interventions and increases in health system capacity.

Findings

The predicted population-level IFR in

SUBMITTER: Mangal T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8300555 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature