COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan-Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting.

ABSTRACT: In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves' occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy

SUBMITTER: Hussein T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8310337 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature