Improving target price calculations in Medicare bundled payment programs.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To compare the predictive accuracy of two approaches to target price calculations under Bundled Payments for Care Improvement-Advanced (BPCI-A): the traditional Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) methodology and an empirical Bayes approach designed to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean.

Data sources

Medicare fee-for-service claims for beneficiaries discharged from acute care hospitals between 2010 and 2016.

Study design

We used data from a baseline period (discharges between January 1, 2010 and September 30, 2013) to predict spending in a performance period (discharges between October 1, 2015 and June 30, 2016). For 23 clinical episode types in BPCI-A, we compared the average prediction error across hospitals associated with each st

SUBMITTER: Cher BAY 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8313949 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature