Over- and under-estimation of COVID-19 deaths.

ABSTRACT: The ratio of COVID-19-attributable deaths versus "true" COVID-19 deaths depends on the synchronicity of the epidemic wave with population mortality; duration of test positivity, diagnostic time window, and testing practices close to and at death; infection prevalence; the extent of diagnosing without testing documentation; and the ratio of overall (all-cause) population mortality rate and infection fatality rate. A nomogram is offered to assess the potential extent of over- and under-counting in different situations. COVID-19 deaths were apparently under-counted early in the pandemic and continue to be under-counted in several countries, especially in Africa, while over-counting probably currently exists for several other countries, especially those with intensive testing and high sensitiz

SUBMITTER: Ioannidis JPA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8318048 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature