Onset of effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 infection rates in 176 countries.

ABSTRACT:

Background

During the initial phase of the global COVID-19 outbreak, most countries responded with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this study we investigate the general effectiveness of these NPIs, how long different NPIs need to be in place to take effect, and how long they should be in place for their maximum effect to unfold.

Methods

We used global data and a non-parametric machine learning model to estimate the effects of NPIs in relation to how long they have been in place. We applied a random forest model and used accumulated local effect (ALE) plots to derive estimates of the effectiveness of single NPIs in relation to their implementation date. In addition, we used bootstrap samples to investigate the variability in these ALE plots.

Results

Our res

SUBMITTER: Nader IW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8318058 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature