Dataset Information

Development and external validation of prognostic models to predict sudden and pump-failure death in patients with HFrEF from PARADIGM-HF and ATMOSPHERE.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Sudden death (SD) and pump failure death (PFD) are the two leading causes of death in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

Objective

Identifying patients at higher risk for mode-specific death would allow better targeting of individual patients for relevant device and other therapies.

Methods

We developed models in 7156 patients with HFrEF from the Prospective comparison of ARNI with ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and morbidity in Heart Failure (PARADIGM-HF) trial, using Fine-Gray regressions counting other deaths as competing risks. The derived models were externally validated in the Aliskiren Trial to Minimize Outcomes in Patients with Heart Failure (ATMOSPHERE) trial.

Results

NYHA class and NT-proBNP were independent predictors for both modes of death. The SD model additionally included male sex, Asian or Black race, prior CABG or PCI, cancer history, MI history, treatment with LCZ696 vs. enalapril, QRS duration and ECG left ventricular hypertrophy. While LVEF, ischemic etiology, systolic blood pressure, HF duration, ECG bundle branch block, and serum albumin, chloride and creatinine were included in the PFD model. Model discrimination was good for SD and excellent for PFD with Harrell's C of 0.67 and 0.78 after correction for optimism, respectively. The observed and predicted incidences were similar in each quartile of risk scores at 3 years in each model. The performance of both models remained robust in ATMOSPHERE.

Conclusion

We developed and validated models which separately predict SD and PFD in patients with HFrEF. These models may help clinicians and patients consider therapies targeted at these modes of death.

Trial registration number

PARADIGM-HF: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01035255, ATMOSPHERE: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00853658.

SUBMITTER: Shen L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8318968 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Development and external validation of prognostic models to predict sudden and pump-failure death in patients with HFrEF from PARADIGM-HF and ATMOSPHERE.

Shen Li L Claggett Brian L BL Jhund Pardeep S PS Abraham William T WT Desai Akshay Suvas AS Dickstein Kenneth K Gong Jianjian J Køber Lars V LV Lefkowitz Marty P MP Rouleau Jean L JL Shi Victor C VC Swedberg Karl K Zile Michael R MR Solomon Scott D SD McMurray John J V JJV

Clinical research in cardiology : official journal of the German Cardiac Society 20210608 8

<h4>Background</h4>Sudden death (SD) and pump failure death (PFD) are the two leading causes of death in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).<h4>Objective</h4>Identifying patients at higher risk for mode-specific death would allow better targeting of individual patients for relevant device and other therapies.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed models in 7156 patients with HFrEF from the Prospective comparison of ARNI with ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and m ...[more]

PMID: 34101002

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Project description:BackgroundSudden death (SD) and pump failure death (PFD) are leading modes of death in heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Risk stratification for mode-specific death may aid in patient enrichment for new device trials in HFpEF.MethodsModels were derived in 4116 patients in the Irbesartan in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction trial (I-Preserve), using competing risks regression analysis. A series of models were built in a stepwise manner, and were validated in the Candesartan in Heart failure: Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and morbidity (CHARM)-Preserved and Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist (TOPCAT) trials.ResultsThe clinical model for SD included older age, men, lower LVEF, higher heart rate, history of diabetes or myocardial infarction, and HF hospitalization within previous 6 months, all of which were associated with a higher SD risk. The clinical model predicting PFD included older age, men, lower LVEF or diastolic blood pressure, higher heart rate, and history of diabetes or atrial fibrillation, all for a higher PFD risk, and dyslipidaemia for a lower risk of PFD. In each model, the observed and predicted incidences were similar in each risk subgroup, suggesting good calibration. Model discrimination was good for SD and excellent for PFD with Harrell's C of 0.71 (95% CI 0.68-0.75) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.82), respectively. Both models were robust in external validation. Adding ECG and biochemical parameters, model performance improved little in the derivation cohort but decreased in validation. Including NT-proBNP substantially increased discrimination of the SD model, and simplified the PFD model with marginal increase in discrimination.ConclusionsThe clinical models can predict risks for SD and PFD separately with good discrimination and calibration in HFpEF and are robust in external validation. Adding NT-proBNP further improved model performance. These models may help to identify high-risk individuals for device intervention in future trials.Clinical trial registrationI-Preserve: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00095238; TOPCAT: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00094302; CHARM-Preserved: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00634712.

Project description:ImportanceAccurate prediction of risk of death or hospitalizations in patients with heart failure (HF) may allow physicians to explore how more accurate decisions regarding appropriateness and timing of disease-modifying treatments, advanced therapies, or the need for end-of-life care can be made.ObjectiveTo develop and validate a prognostic model for patients with HF.Design, setting, and participantsMultivariable analyses were performed in a stepwise fashion. Harrell C statistic was used to assess the discriminative ability. The derivation cohort was Prospective Comparison of ARNI With ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure trial (PARADIGM-HF) participants. The models were validated using the Aliskiren Trial to Minimize Outcomes in Patients with Heart Failure Trial (ATMOSPHERE) study and in the Swedish Heart Failure Registry (SwedeHF). A total of 8399 participants enrolled in PARADIGM-HF. Data were analyzed between June 2016 and June 2018.Main outcomes and measuresCardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, and the composite of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization at both 1 and 2 years.ResultsComplete baseline clinical data were available for 8011 patients in PARADIGM-HF. The mean (SD) age of participants was 64 (11.4) years, 78.2% were men (n = 6567 of 8399), and 70.6% were New York Heart Association class II (n = 5919 of 8399). During a mean follow-up of 27 months, 1546 patients died, and 2031 had a cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization. The common variables were: male sex, race/ethnicity (black or Asian), region (Central Europe or Latin America), HF duration of more than 5 years, New York Heart Association class III/ IV, left ventricular ejection fraction, diabetes mellitus, β-blocker use at baseline, and allocation to sacubitril/valsartan. Ranked by χ2, N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide was the single most powerful independent predictor of each outcome. The C statistic at 1 and 2 years was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70-0.73) for the primary composite end point, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71-0.75) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.73) for cardiovascular death, and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67-0.74) for all-cause death, respectively. When validated in ATMOSPHERE, the C statistic at 1 and 2 years was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68-0.71) for the primary composite end point, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72) for cardiovascular death, and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68-0.72) for all-cause death, respectively. An online calculator was created to allow calculation of an individual's risk (http://www.predict-hf.com).Conclusions and relevancePredictive models performed well and were developed and externally validated in large cohorts of geographically representative patients, comprehensively characterized with clinical and laboratory data including natriuretic peptides, who were receiving contemporary evidence-based treatment.

Project description:AimsThe aim of this study was to examine the effect of dapagliflozin on the incidence of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden death in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).Methods and resultsIn a post hoc analysis of DAPA-HF, we examined serious adverse event reports related to ventricular arrhythmias or cardiac arrest, in addition to adjudicated sudden death. The effect of dapagliflozin, compared with placebo, on the composite of the first occurrence of any serious ventricular arrhythmia, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or sudden death was examined using Cox proportional hazards models. A serious ventricular arrhythmia was reported in 115 (2.4%) of the 4744 patients in DAPA-HF (ventricular fibrillation in 15 patients, ventricular tachycardia in 86, 'other' ventricular arrhythmia/tachyarrhythmia in 12, and torsade de pointes in 2 patients). A total of 206 (41%) of the 500 cardiovascular deaths occurred suddenly. Eight patients survived resuscitation from cardiac arrest. Independent predictors of the composite outcome (first occurrence of any serious ventricular arrhythmia, resuscitated cardiac arrest or sudden death), ranked by chi-square value, were log-transformed N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, history of ventricular arrhythmia, left ventricular ejection fraction, systolic blood pressure, history of myocardial infarction, male sex, body mass index, serum sodium concentration, non-white race, treatment with dapagliflozin, and cardiac resynchronization therapy. Of participants assigned to dapagliflozin, 140/2373 patients (5.9%) experienced the composite outcome compared with 175/2371 patients (7.4%) in the placebo group [hazard ratio 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.63-0.99), P = 0.037], and the effect was consistent across each of the components of the composite outcome.ConclusionsDapagliflozin reduced the risk of any serious ventricular arrhythmia, cardiac arrest, or sudden death when added to conventional therapy in patients with HFrEF.Clinical trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov unique identifier: NCT03036124 (DAPA-HF).

Dataset Information

Development and external validation of prognostic models to predict sudden and pump-failure death in patients with HFrEF from PARADIGM-HF and ATMOSPHERE.

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Trial registration number

Publications

Development and external validation of prognostic models to predict sudden and pump-failure death in patients with HFrEF from PARADIGM-HF and ATMOSPHERE.

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