Forecasting suicide rates in India: An empirical exposition.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Suicide is a major social and health issue in India. Yearly statistics show a concerning increasing pattern of suicidal deaths in India which is higher in comparison to the global trend. There is limited evidence regarding historical analysis of suicide or any forecasting for suicide in India towards predicting the possible risks of death due to suicide.

Methods

This paper examines the trend of suicide rate and characteristics of suicide victims in India, based on the longitudinal time series data over the last 50 years-collected from the National Crime Record Bureau Reports (1969 to 2018) of the Government of India. In our analysis, we have used the time series model to forecast the suicide rates in India for the next decade. ARIMA (4,1,0) model is found to be

SUBMITTER: Swain PK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8321128 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature