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The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is likely comodulated by temperature and by relative humidity.

ABSTRACT: Inferring the impact of climate upon the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been confounded by variability in testing, unknown disease introduction rates, and changing weather. Here we present a data model that accounts for dynamic testing rates and variations in disease introduction rates. We apply this model to data from Colombia, whose varied and seasonless climate, central port of entry, and swift, centralized response to the COVID-19 pandemic present an opportune environment for assessing the impact of climate factors on the spread of COVID-19. We observe strong attenuation of transmission in climates with sustained daily temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius and simultaneous mean relative humidity below 78%, with outbreaks occurring at high humidity even where the temperature is high. We hypothesize that temperature and relative humidity comodulate the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 within respiratory droplets.

SUBMITTER: Raines KS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8321224 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is likely comodulated by temperature and by relative humidity.

Raines Kevin S KS Doniach Sebastian S Bhanot Gyan G

PloS one 20210729 7

Inferring the impact of climate upon the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been confounded by variability in testing, unknown disease introduction rates, and changing weather. Here we present a data model that accounts for dynamic testing rates and variations in disease introduction rates. We apply this model to data from Colombia, whose varied and seasonless climate, central port of entry, and swift, centralized response to the COVID-19 pandemic present an opportune environment for assessing the i ...[more]

PMID: 34324570

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Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in China in late 2019 and is caused by newly identified severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Previous studies had reported the stability of SARS-CoV-2 in cell culture media and deposited onto surfaces under a limited set of environmental conditions. Here, we broadly investigated the effects of relative humidity, temperature, and droplet size on the stability of SARS-CoV-2 in a simulated clinically relevant matrix dried on nonporous surfaces. The results show that SARS-CoV-2 decayed more rapidly when either humidity or temperature was increased but that droplet volume (1 to 50 μl) and surface type (stainless steel, plastic, or nitrile glove) did not significantly impact decay rate. At room temperature (24°C), virus half-life ranged from 6.3 to 18.6 h depending on the relative humidity but was reduced to 1.0 to 8.9 h when the temperature was increased to 35°C. These findings suggest that a potential for fomite transmission may persist for hours to days in indoor environments and have implications for assessment of the risk posed by surface contamination in indoor environments.IMPORTANCE Mitigating the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in clinical settings and public spaces is critically important to reduce the number of COVID-19 cases while effective vaccines and therapeutics are under development. SARS-CoV-2 transmission is thought to primarily occur through direct person-to-person transfer of infectious respiratory droplets or through aerosol-generating medical procedures. However, contact with contaminated surfaces may also play a significant role. In this context, understanding the factors contributing to SARS-CoV-2 persistence on surfaces will enable a more accurate estimation of the risk of contact transmission and inform mitigation strategies. To this end, we have developed a simple mathematical model that can be used to estimate virus decay on nonporous surfaces under a range of conditions and which may be utilized operationally to identify indoor environments in which the virus is most persistent.

Project description:IntroductionThe current global pandemic of the virus that emerged from Hubei province in China has caused coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19), which has affected a total number of 900 036 people globally, involving 206 countries and resulted in a cumulative of 45 693 deaths worldwide as of 3 April 2020. The mode of transmission is identified through airdrops from patients' body fluids such as during sneezing, coughing and talking. However, the relative importance of environmental effects in the transmission of the virus has not been vastly studied. In addition, the role of temperature and humidity in air-borne transmission of infection is presently still unclear. This study aims to identify the effect of temperature, humidity and air quality in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.Methods and analysisWe will systematically conduct a comprehensive literature search using various databases including PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, CENTRAL and Google Scholar to identify potential studies. The search will be performed for any eligible articles from the earliest published articles up to latest available studies in 2020. We will include all the observational studies such as cohort case-control and cross-sectional studies that explains or measures the effects of temperature and/or humidity and/or air quality and/or anthropic activities that is associated with SARS-CoV-2. Study selection and reporting will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guideline. All data will be extracted using a standardised data extraction form and quality of the studies will be assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale guideline. Descriptive and meta-analysis will be performed using a random effect model in Review Manager File.Ethics and disseminationNo primary data will be collected, and thus no formal ethical approval is required. The results will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed publication and conference presentation.Prospero registration numberCRD42020176756.

Project description:A novel modified version of the Wells-Riley model was used to estimate the impact of relative humidity (RH) on the removal of respiratory droplets containing the SARS-CoV-2 virus by deposition through gravitational settling and its inactivation by biological decay; the effect of RH on susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 was not considered. These effects were compared with the removal achieved by increased ventilation rate with outdoor air. Modeling was performed assuming that the infected person talked continuously for 60 and 120 min. The results of modeling showed that the relative impact of RH on the infection risk depended on the ventilation rate and the size range of virus-laden droplets. A ventilation rate of 0.5 ACH, the change of RH between 20% and 53% was predicted to have a small effect on the infection risk, while at a ventilation rate of 6 ACH this change had nearly no effect. On the contrary, increasing the ventilation rate from 0.5 ACH to 6 ACH was predicted to decrease the infection risk by half which is remarkably larger effect compared with that predicted for RH. It is thus concluded that increasing the ventilation rate is more beneficial for reducing the airborne levels of SARS-CoV-2 than changing indoor RH.Practical implicationsThe present results show that humidification to moderate levels of 40%-60% RH should not be expected to provide a significant reduction in infection risk caused by SARS-CoV-2, hence installing and running humidifiers may not be an efficient solution to reduce the risk of COVID-19 disease in indoor spaces. The results do however confirm that ventilation has a key role in controlling SARS-CoV-2 virus concentration in the air providing considerably higher benefits. The modified model developed in the present work can be used by public health experts, engineers, and epidemiologists when selecting different measures to reduce the infection risk from SARS-CoV-2 indoors allowing informed decisions concerning indoor environmental control.

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The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is likely comodulated by temperature and by relative humidity.

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The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is likely comodulated by temperature and by relative humidity.

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