Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains.

ABSTRACT: Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found

SUBMITTER: Rella SA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8324827 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature