Herd immunity induced by COVID-19 vaccination programs and suppression of epidemics caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To allow a return to a pre-COVID-19 lifestyle, virtually every country has initiated a vaccination program to mitigate severe disease burden and control transmission. However, it remains to be seen whether herd immunity will be within reach of these programs.

Methods

We developed a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China, a population with low prior immunity from natural infection. The model is calibrated considering COVID-19 natural history and the estimated transmissibility of the Delta variant. Three vaccination programs are tested, including the one currently enacted in China and model-based estimates of the herd immunity level are provided.

Results

We found that it is unlike to reach herd immunity for the Delta variant given the relative

SUBMITTER: Liu H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8328074 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature