Epidemics of chikungunya, Zika, and COVID-19 reveal bias in case-based mapping.

ABSTRACT: Accurate tracing of epidemic spread over space enables effective control measures. We examined three metrics of infection and disease in a pediatric cohort (N≈3,000) over two chikungunya and one Zika epidemic, and in a household cohort (N=1,793) over one COVID-19 epidemic in Managua, Nicaragua. We compared spatial incidence rates (cases/total population), infection risks (infections/total population), and disease risks (cases/infected population). We used generalized additive and mixed-effects models, Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic, and intracluster correlation coefficients. Across different analyses and all epidemics, incidence rates considerably underestimated infection and disease risks, producing large and spatially non-uniform biases distinct from biases due to incomplete case asce

SUBMITTER: Bustos Carrillo FA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8328077 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature