Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ireland under mitigation.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In Ireland and across the European Union the COVID-19 epidemic waves, driven mainly by the emergence of new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 have continued their course, despite various interventions from governments. Public health interventions continue in their attempts to control the spread as they wait for the planned significant effect of vaccination.

Methods

To tackle this challenge and the observed non-stationary aspect of the epidemic we used a modified SEIR stochastic model with time-varying parameters, following Brownian process. This enabled us to reconstruct the temporal evolution of the transmission rate of COVID-19 with the non-specific hypothesis that it follows a basic stochastic process constrained by the available data. This model is coupled with Bayes

SUBMITTER: Cazelles B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8329614 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature