Dataset Information

Mortality risk prediction in high-risk patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting: Are traditional risk scores accurate?

ABSTRACT:

Background

The performance of traditional scores is significantly limited to predict mortality in high-risk cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of STS, ESII and HiriSCORE models in predicting mortality in high-risk patients undergoing CABG.

Methods

Cross-sectional analysis in the international prospective database of high-risk patients: HiriSCORE project. We evaluated 248 patients with STS or ESII (5-10%) undergoing CABG in 8 hospitals in Brazil and China. The main outcome was mortality, defined as all deaths occurred during the hospitalization in which the operation was performed, even after 30 days. Five variables were selected as predictors of mortality in this cohort of patients. The model's performance was evaluated through the calibration-in-the-large and the receiver operating curve (ROC) tests.

Results

The mean age was 69.90±9.45, with 52.02% being female, 25% of the patients were on New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV and 49.6% had Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) class 4 angina, and 85.5% had urgency or emergency status. The mortality observed in the sample was 13.31%. The HiriSCORE model showed better calibration (15.0%) compared to ESII (6.6%) and the STS model (2.0%). In the ROC curve, the HiriSCORE model showed better accuracy (ROC = 0.74) than the traditional models STS (ROC = 0.67) and ESII (ROC = 0.50).

Conclusion

Traditional models were inadequate to predict mortality of high-risk patients undergoing CABG. However, the HiriSCORE model was simple and accurate to predict mortality in high-risk patients.

SUBMITTER: Goncharov M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8330943 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Mortality risk prediction in high-risk patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting: Are traditional risk scores accurate?

Goncharov Maxim M Mejia Omar Asdrúbal Vilca OAV Arthur Camila Perez de Souza CPS Orlandi Bianca Maria Maglia BMM Sousa Alexandre A Oliveira Marco Antônio Praça MAP Atik Fernando Antibas FA Segalote Rodrigo Coelho RC Tiveron Marcos Gradim MG de Barros E Silva Pedro Gabriel Melo PGM Nakazone Marcelo Arruda MA Lisboa Luiz Augusto Ferreira LAF Dallan Luís Alberto Oliveira LAO Zheng Zhe Z Hu Shengshou S Jatene Fabio Biscegli FB

PloS one 20210803 8

<h4>Background</h4>The performance of traditional scores is significantly limited to predict mortality in high-risk cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of STS, ESII and HiriSCORE models in predicting mortality in high-risk patients undergoing CABG.<h4>Methods</h4>Cross-sectional analysis in the international prospective database of high-risk patients: HiriSCORE project. We evaluated 248 patients with STS or ESII (5-10%) undergoing CABG in 8 hospitals in Brazil a ...[more]

PMID: 34343224

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Project description:BackgroundThe intra aortic balloon pump (IABP) is a mechanical assist device which improves cardiac function. The device has a well-established place in algorithms for managing low cardiac output following cardiac surgery. There is increasing evidence that certain cardiac surgery patients benefit from a period of preoperative augmentation with the intra aortic balloon pump.ObjectivesTo determine the effect of the preoperative intra aortic balloon pump on mortality and morbidity in a number of different patients groups undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.Search strategyThe Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) on The Cochrane Library (Issue 3, 2009), MEDLINE (2000 to August 2009), EMBASE (1998 to August 2009), BIOSIS previews (1969 to August 2009) and ISI Proceedings (1990 to August 2009) were searched. References and ongoing registers of studies were checked. No language restrictions were applied.Selection criteriaRandomised controlled trials (RCTs) of any size or length were included.Data collection and analysisPapers were assessed for inclusion by two authors independently and differences were settled by consensus with a third author. Date are presented in the form of odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).Main resultsSix trials were included (five on-pump and one off-pump). This update adds the results of one further trial. Data from a total of 255 patients were included in the meta-analysis of mortality outcomes; all on-pump. Generally, the patients were considered as "high risk" and 132 were treated preoperatively with IABP and 123 served as controls. There were four hospital deaths in the intervention arm and 23 in the non-intervention arm (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.41; P<0.0001). In a subgroup analysis, low cardiac index (<2.0 L/min/m(2)) was noted in 21 out of 105 patients in the treatment arm and 59 patients out of 88 in the non-treatment arm (OR 0.14, 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.25; P<0.00001). An off-pump versus on-pump analysis was not possible due to the limited number of off-pump studies. However a single well-conducted RCT suggested favourable effect of the preoperative IABP in off-pump patients.Authors' conclusionsEvidence suggests that preoperative IABP may have a beneficial effect on mortality and morbidity in specific high risk patient groups undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting, however there are many problems with the quality, validity and generalisability of the trials. However, the available evidence is not robust enough to extend the use of IABP to truly elective, high risk patients. Defining more precisely which patient groups may benefit would be the challenge for the future.

Project description:BackgroundCoronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is associated with both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and non-CVD traits. In addition, women's prognosis after coronary events and revascularizations is worse than in men. As the course of CVD in women differs from that of men, we performed a phenome-wide analysis on the sex differences in CABG -related morbidity and mortality.Materials and methodsWe performed an untargeted analysis on the sex differences in predictors and outcomes of CABG. We studied a sample of 176,680 FinnGen participants, including 5,950 individuals who underwent CABG (4,988 men and 962 women) and were followed between 1998 and 2019. Over 1,100 different traits were analyzed for both sexes and the results were adjusted with age, smoking status and BMI. Cox proportional hazards models with sex-trait interactions were used to estimate the associations between (1) traits and incident CABG; and (2) CABG and incident traits.ResultsIn women, CABG was more strongly related to greater increases in risk of diseases such as hypertension, Alzheimer's, aortic aneurysms, gout, and chronic kidney disease compared to risk increases observed in men (all interaction p-values < 0.03). After CABG, men had 2.5-fold (p = 3.1E-15) and women 6.3-fold (p = 9.4E-08) greater risk of cardiac death compared to same-sex individuals who did not undergo CABG (p for interaction 8.2E-4). Moreover, the risk of death in women remained higher even 12 years after CABG, whereas the long-term risk of death in men was not increased, compared to same-sex individuals who did not undergo CABG.ConclusionThe adverse outcomes after CABG, both quantity and quality, also appear to differ between men and women. In women, CABG is related to greater long-term increases in risk of cardiac death and several other disease states than in men. Consideration should therefore be given to whether women receive adequate long-term post-operative therapy and follow-up as CABG is not associated with equally improved cardiovascular disease prognosis in women than in men.

Dataset Information

Mortality risk prediction in high-risk patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting: Are traditional risk scores accurate?

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Mortality risk prediction in high-risk patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting: Are traditional risk scores accurate?

Similar Datasets

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