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Time-varying optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited vaccination capacity.

ABSTRACT: Dynamically adapting the allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to the evolving epidemiological situation could be key to reduce COVID-19 burden. Here we developed a data-driven mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to explore optimal vaccine prioritization strategies in China. We found that a time-varying vaccination program (i.e., allocating vaccines to different target groups as the epidemic evolves) can be highly beneficial as it is capable of simultaneously achieving different objectives (e.g., minimizing the number of deaths and of infections). Our findings suggest that boosting the vaccination capacity up to 2.5 million first doses per day (0.17% rollout speed) or higher could greatly reduce COVID-19 burden, should a new wave start to unfold in China with reproduction number ≤1.5. The highest priority categories are consistent under a broad range of assumptions. Finally, a high vaccination capacity in the early phase of the vaccination campaign is key to achieve large gains of strategic prioritizations.

SUBMITTER: Han S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8333090 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Time-varying optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited vaccination capacity.

Han Shasha S Cai Jun J Yang Juan J Zhang Juanjuan J Wu Qianhui Q Zheng Wen W Shi Huilin H Ajelli Marco M Zhou Xiao-Hua XH Yu Hongjie H

Nature communications 20210803 1

Dynamically adapting the allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to the evolving epidemiological situation could be key to reduce COVID-19 burden. Here we developed a data-driven mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to explore optimal vaccine prioritization strategies in China. We found that a time-varying vaccination program (i.e., allocating vaccines to different target groups as the epidemic evolves) can be highly beneficial as it is capable of simultaneously achieving different objectives (e ...[more]

PMID: 34344871

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Project description:The worldwide inequitable access to vaccination claims for a re-assessment of policies that could minimize the COVID-19 burden in low-income countries. Nine months after the launch of the national vaccination program in March 2021, only 3.4% of the Ethiopian population received two doses of COVID-19 vaccine. We used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to estimate the level of immunity accrued before the launch of vaccination in the Southwest Shewa Zone (SWSZ) and to evaluate the impact of alternative age priority vaccination targets in a context of limited vaccine supply. The model was informed with available epidemiological evidence and detailed contact data collected across different geographical settings (urban, rural, or remote). We found that, during the first year of the pandemic, the mean proportion of critical cases occurred in SWSZ attributable to infectors under 30 years of age would range between 24.9 and 48.0%, depending on the geographical setting. During the Delta wave, the contribution of this age group in causing critical cases was estimated to increase on average to 66.7-70.6%. Our findings suggest that, when considering the vaccine product available at the time (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19; 65% efficacy against infection after 2 doses), prioritizing the elderly for vaccination remained the best strategy to minimize the disease burden caused by Delta, irrespectively of the number of available doses. Vaccination of all individuals aged ≥ 50 years would have averted 40 (95%PI: 18-60), 90 (95%PI: 61-111), and 62 (95%PI: 21-108) critical cases per 100,000 residents in urban, rural, and remote areas, respectively. Vaccination of all individuals aged ≥ 30 years would have averted an average of 86-152 critical cases per 100,000 individuals, depending on the setting considered. Despite infections among children and young adults likely caused 70% of critical cases during the Delta wave in SWSZ, most vulnerable ages should remain a key priority target for vaccination against COVID-19.

Project description:ImportanceAs COVID-19 vaccine distribution continues, policy makers are struggling to decide which groups should be prioritized for vaccination.ObjectiveTo assess US adults' preferences regarding COVID-19 vaccine prioritization.Design, setting, and participantsThis survey study involved 2 independent, online surveys of US adults aged 18 years and older, 1 conducted by Gallup from September 14 to 27, 2020, and the other conducted by the COVID Collaborative from September 19 to 25, 2020. Samples were weighted to reflect sociodemographic characteristics of the US population.ExposuresRespondents were asked to prioritize groups for COVID-19 vaccine and to rank their prioritization considerations.Main outcomes and measuresThe study assessed prioritization preferences and agreement with the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine's Preliminary Framework for Equitable Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine.ResultsA total of 4735 individuals participated, 2730 (1474 men [54.1%]; mean [SD] age, 59.2 [14.5] years) in the Gallup survey and 2005 (944 men [47.1%]; 203 participants [21.5%] aged 55-59 years) in the COVID Collaborative survey. In both the Gallup COVID-19 Panel and COVID Collaborative surveys, respondents listed health care workers (Gallup, 93.6% [95% CI, 91.2%-95.3%]; COVID Collaborative, 80.0% [95% CI, 78.0%-81.9%]) and adults of any age with serious comorbid conditions (Gallup, 78.6% [95% CI, 75.2%-81.7%]; COVID Collaborative, 72.9% [95% CI, 70.7%-74.9%]) among their 4 highest priority groups. Respondents of all political affiliations agreed with prioritizing Black, Hispanic, Native American, and other communities that have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19 (Gallup, 74.2% [95% CI, 70.6%-77.5%]; COVID Collaborative, 84.9% [95% CI, 83.1%-86.5%]), and COVID Collaborative respondents were willing to be preceded in line by teachers and childcare workers (92.5%; 95% CI, 91.2%-93.7%) and grocery workers (85.9%; 95% CI, 84.2%-87.5%). Older respondents in both surveys were significantly less likely than younger respondents to prioritize healthy adults aged 65 years and older among their 4 highest priority groups (Gallup, 23.7% vs 39.1% [χ2 = 2160.8; P < .001]; COVID Collaborative, 23.3% vs 28.8% [χ2 = 5.0198; P = .03]). COVID Collaborative respondents believed the 4 most important considerations for prioritization were preventing COVID-19 spread (78.4% [95% CI, 76.3%-80.3%]), preventing the most deaths (72.1% [95% CI, 69.9%-74.2%]), preventing long-term complications (68.9% [66.6%-71.9%]), and protecting frontline workers (63.8% [95% CI, 61.5%-66.1%]).Conclusions and relevanceUS adults broadly agreed with the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine's prioritization framework. Respondents endorsed prioritizing racial/ethnic communities that are disproportionately affected by COVID-19, and older respondents were significantly less likely than younger respondents to endorse prioritizing healthy people older than 65 years. This provides reason for caution about COVID-19 vaccine distribution plans that prioritize healthy adults older than a cutoff age without including those younger than that age with preexisting conditions, that aim solely to prevent the most deaths, or that give no priority to frontline workers or disproportionately affected communities.

Dataset Information

Time-varying optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited vaccination capacity.

Publications

Time-varying optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited vaccination capacity.

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