Predicting Hospital Resource Use During COVID-19 Surges: A Simple but Flexible Discretely Integrated Condition Event Simulation of Individual Patient-Hospital Trajectories.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To assist with planning hospital resources, including critical care (CC) beds, for managing patients with COVID-19.

Methods

An individual simulation was implemented in Microsoft Excel using a discretely integrated condition event simulation. Expected daily cases presented to the emergency department were modeled in terms of transitions to and from ward and CC and to discharge or death. The duration of stay in each location was selected from trajectory-specific distributions. Daily ward and CC bed occupancy and the number of discharges according to care needs were forecast for the period of interest. Face validity was ascertained by local experts and, for the case study, by comparing forecasts with actual data.

Results

To illustrate the use of the model, a c

SUBMITTER: Caro JJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8339677 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature