A mechanistic and data-driven reconstruction of the time-varying reproduction number: Application to the COVID-19 epidemic.

ABSTRACT: The effective reproduction number Reff is a critical epidemiological parameter that characterizes the transmissibility of a pathogen. However, this parameter is difficult to estimate in the presence of silent transmission and/or significant temporal variation in case reporting. This variation can occur due to the lack of timely or appropriate testing, public health interventions and/or changes in human behavior during an epidemic. This is exactly the situation we are confronted with during this COVID-19 pandemic. In this work, we propose to estimate Reff for the SARS-CoV-2 (the etiological agent of the COVID-19), based on a model of its propagation considering a time-varying transmission rate. This rate is modeled by a Brownian diffusion process embedded in a stochastic model. The model is

SUBMITTER: Cazelles B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8341713 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature