Risk assessment and integrated surveillance of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Russia based on Monte Carlo simulation.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock worldwide. Russia is a big agricultural country with a wide geographical area where FMD outbreaks have become an obstacle for the development of the animal and animal products trade. In this study, we aimed to assess the export risk of FMD from Russia.

Results

After simulation by Monte Carlo, the results showed that the probability of cattle infected with FMD in the surveillance zone (Surrounding the areas where no epidemic disease has occurred within the prescribed time limit, the construction of buffer areas is called surveillance zone.) of Russia was 1.29 × 10^- 6. The probability that at least one FMD positive case was exported from Russia per year in the surveillance zone was 6

SUBMITTER: Wang J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8353819 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature