Quantifying non-communicable diseases' burden in Egypt using State-Space model.

ABSTRACT: The study aimed to model and quantify the health burden induced by four non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Egypt, the first to be conducted in the context of a less developing county. The study used the State-Space model and adopted two Bayesian methods: Particle Filter and Particle Independent Metropolis-Hastings to model and estimate the NCDs' health burden trajectories. We drew on time-series data of the International Health Metric Evaluation, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) Annual Bulletin of Health Services Statistics, the World Bank, and WHO data. Both Bayesian methods showed that the burden trajectories are on the rise. Most of the findings agreed with our assumptions and are in line with the literature. Previous year burden strongly predicts the

SUBMITTER: El-Saadani S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8354445 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature