Dataset Information

From Claims to Violence: Signaling, Outbidding, and Escalation in Ethnic Conflict.

ABSTRACT: Do radical political demands increase the risk of ethnic civil conflict? And why do ethnic movements make radical demands in the first place? We contend that when movements are fragmented, individual organizations use far-reaching claims relative to the status quo to attract attention from the government, boost intra-organizational discipline, and outbid rivals. Yet, such radical claims also increase the risk of conflict escalation. We test our arguments at both the ethnic group and organizational levels, using a new dataset on ethno-political organizations and their political demands. Our results show that the scope of demands increases the more organizations exist within an ethnic movement and that radical demands increase the risk of civil conflict onset. This effect is specific to the dyadic government-movement interaction, irrespective of other ethnic groups in the country. Moreover, at the organizational level, radicalization in demands increases the likelihood that an organization becomes engaged in civil conflict.

SUBMITTER: Vogt M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8358586 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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From Claims to Violence: Signaling, Outbidding, and Escalation in Ethnic Conflict.

Vogt Manuel M Gleditsch Kristian Skrede KS Cederman Lars-Erik LE

The Journal of conflict resolution 20210302 7-8

Do radical political demands increase the risk of ethnic civil conflict? And why do ethnic movements make radical demands in the first place? We contend that when movements are fragmented, individual organizations use far-reaching claims relative to the status quo to attract attention from the government, boost intra-organizational discipline, and outbid rivals. Yet, such radical claims also increase the risk of conflict escalation. We test our arguments at both the ethnic group and organization ...[more]

PMID: 34393264

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Project description:BackgroundSince 2014, over 1.6 million people have been forcibly displaced by the conflict in eastern Ukraine. In 2014, 8% of reproductive-aged women in Ukraine had ever experienced sexual violence, compared to 5% in 2007. This increase was driven by non-domestic sexual violence. Our study examined characteristics of women in eastern Ukraine receiving psychosocial services following sexual violence compared to survivors of other forms of gender-based violence.MethodsIntake data collected between February 2016 and June 2017 by psychosocial service providers in five conflict-affected areas of Ukraine from women, aged 15-49, (N = 8525), was analyzed. Descriptive analysis and covariate adjusted logistic and negative binomial regressions were used to identify socioeconomic, incident and access to services factors associated with having experienced sexual violence compared to other forms of violence.ResultsAmong this sample of survivors receiving psychosocial services, 2.6% (n = 220) reported experiencing sexual violence. A majority of sexual violence acts reported were committed by non-domestic perpetrators (61.4%); followed by intimate partners (25.9%). Almost half of sexual violence cases occurred at home (49.1%). Experiencing sexual violence was positively associated with being younger, single and internally displaced, and negatively with engaging in unpaid labor, such as childcare. Women who experienced sexual violence delayed seeking care by 4 days compared to other gender-based violence survivors. Sexual violence survivors were less likely than physical violence survivors to have reported the incident prior to receiving care (adjusted odds ratio = 0.39; 95% confidence interval = 0.28-0.54).ConclusionsNon-domestic and intimate partner sexual violence were both prevalent in our sample. Compared to survivors disclosing other types of gender-based violence, sexual violence survivors appear to face unique barriers to reporting and accessing timely care. Prevention and outreach programs tailored to the specific vulnerabilities, such as displacement status, and needs of sexual violence survivors in conflict settings are urgently needed.

Project description:BackgroundThe relationship between exposure to conflict violence during pregnancy and the risks of miscarriage, stillbirth, and perinatal mortality has not been studied empirically using rigorous methods and appropriate data. We investigated the association between reduced exposure to conflict violence during pregnancy and the risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes in Colombia.Methods and findingsWe adopted a regression discontinuity (RD) design using the July 20, 2015 cease-fire declared during the Colombian peace process as an exogenous discontinuous change in exposure to conflict events during pregnancy, comparing women with conception dates before and after the cease-fire date. We constructed the cohorts of all pregnant women in Colombia for each day between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2017 using birth and death certificates. A total of 3,254,696 women were followed until the end of pregnancy. We measured conflict exposure as the total number of conflict events that occurred in the municipality where a pregnant woman lived during her pregnancy. We first assessed whether the cease-fire did induce a discontinuous fall in conflict exposure for women with conception dates after the cease-fire to then estimate the association of this reduced exposure with the risks of miscarriage, stillbirth, and perinatal mortality. We found that the July 20, 2015 cease-fire was associated with a reduction of the average number of conflict events (from 2.64 to 2.40) to which women were exposed during pregnancy in their municipalities of residence (mean differences -0.24; 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.35 to -0.13; p < 0.001). This association was greater in municipalities where Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) had a greater presence historically. The reduction in average exposure to conflict violence was, in turn, associated with a decrease of 9.53 stillbirths per 1,000 pregnancies (95% CI -16.13 to -2.93; p = 0.005) for municipalities with total number of FARC-related violent events above the 90th percentile of the distribution of FARC-related conflict events and a decrease of 7.57 stillbirths per 1,000 pregnancies (95% CI -13.14 to -2.00; p = 0.01) for municipalities with total number of FARC-related violent events above the 75th percentile of FARC-related events. For perinatal mortality, we found associated reductions of 10.69 (95% CI -18.32 to -3.05; p = 0.01) and 6.86 (95% CI -13.24 to -0.48; p = 0.04) deaths per 1,000 pregnancies for the 2 types of municipalities, respectively. We found no association with miscarriages. Formal tests support the validity of the key RD assumptions in our data, while a battery of sensitivity analyses and falsification tests confirm the robustness of our empirical results. The main limitations of the study are the retrospective nature of the information sources and the potential for conflict exposure misclassification.ConclusionsOur study offers evidence that reduced exposure to conflict violence during pregnancy is associated with important (previously unmeasured) benefits in terms of reducing the risk of stillbirth and perinatal deaths. The findings are consistent with such beneficial associations manifesting themselves mainly through reduced violence exposure during the early stages of pregnancy. Beyond the relevance of this evidence for other countries beset by chronic armed conflicts, our results suggest that the fledgling Colombian peace process may be already contributing to better population health.

Dataset Information

From Claims to Violence: Signaling, Outbidding, and Escalation in Ethnic Conflict.

Publications

From Claims to Violence: Signaling, Outbidding, and Escalation in Ethnic Conflict.

Similar Datasets

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