Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs.

ABSTRACT: Small area population forecasts are widely used by government and business for a variety of planning, research and policy purposes, and often influence major investment decisions. Yet, the toolbox of small area population forecasting methods and techniques is modest relative to that for national and large subnational regional forecasting. In this paper, we assess the current state of small area population forecasting, and suggest areas for further research. The paper provides a review of the literature on small area population forecasting methods published over the period 2001-2020. The key themes covered by the review are extrapolative and comparative methods, simplified cohort-component methods, model averaging and combining, incorporating socioeconomic variables and spatial relationship

SUBMITTER: Wilson T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8365292 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature