Mitigating bias in estimating epidemic severity due to heterogeneity of epidemic onset and data aggregation.

ABSTRACT: Outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as influenza, are a major societal burden. Mitigation policies during an outbreak or pandemic are guided by the analysis of data of ongoing or preceding epidemics. The reproduction number, R₀, defined as the expected number of secondary infections arising from a single individual in a population of susceptibles is critical to epidemiology. For typical compartmental models such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) R₀ represents the severity of an epidemic. It is an estimate of the early-stage growth rate of an epidemic and is an important threshold parameter used to gain insights into the spread or decay of an outbreak. Models typically use incidence counts as indicators of cases within a single large population; however, e

SUBMITTER: Krishnan RG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8375253 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature