Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.

ABSTRACT: Human travel is one of the primary drivers of infectious disease spread. Models of travel are often used that assume the amount of travel to a specific destination decreases as cost of travel increases with higher travel volumes to more populated destinations. Trip duration, the length of time spent in a destination, can also impact travel patterns. We investigated the spatial patterns of travel conditioned on trip duration and find distinct differences between short and long duration trips. In short-trip duration travel networks, trips are skewed towards urban destinations, compared with long-trip duration networks where travel is more evenly spread among locations. Using gravity models to inform connectivity patterns in simulations of disease transmission, we show that pathogens with sho

SUBMITTER: Giles JR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8378725 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature