Modeling analysis reveals the transmission trend of COVID-19 and control efficiency of human intervention.

ABSTRACT:

Background

A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused huge damage to public health around the world. Revealing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and control efficiency is important for containing the spread of the virus.

Methods

By using a logistic growth model, we estimated the transmission parameters of COVID-19 in China and six other countries (Republic of Korea, Iran, Italy, Spain, France and Germany). The transmission parameters represent the maximum daily increase rate in the early stages of the epidemic and the control efficiency under human intervention. The control efficiency was determined by the significant decrease of the daily increase rate in time and cumulative cases.

Results

We found the daily increase rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 de

SUBMITTER: Cheng C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8379572 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature