A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Peru.

ABSTRACT:

Background

A proactive approach to preventing and responding to emerging infectious diseases is critical to global health security. We present a three-stage approach to modeling the spatial distribution of outbreak vulnerability to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú.

Methods

Extending a framework developed for modeling hemorrhagic fever vulnerability in Africa, we modeled outbreak vulnerability in three stages: index case potential (stage 1), outbreak receptivity (stage 2), and epidemic potential (stage 3), stratifying scores on season and El Niño events. Subsequently, we evaluated the validity of these scores using dengue surveillance data and spatial models.

Results

We found high validity for stage 1 and 2 scores, but not stage 3 scores. Vulnerability was highe

SUBMITTER: Meisner J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8379593 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature