The impact of long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and control: the value and limitations of early models.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models of epidemics are important tools for predicting epidemic dynamics and evaluating interventions. Yet, because early models are built on limited information, it is unclear how long they will accurately capture epidemic dynamics. Using a stochastic SEIR model of COVID-19 fitted to reported deaths, we estimated transmission parameters at different time points during the first wave of the epidemic (March-June, 2020) in Santa Clara County, California. Although our estimated basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) remained stable from early April to late June (with an overall median of 3.76), our estimated effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) varied from 0.18 to 1.02 in April before stabilizing at 0.64 on 27 May. Between 22 April and 27 May, our model ac

SUBMITTER: Childs ML 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8385372 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature