Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves.

ABSTRACT: Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countries can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting restrictions (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers to a level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate for local spreading events. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease of

SUBMITTER: Bauer S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8412259 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature