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Multiplicity Eludes Peer Review: The Case of COVID-19 Research.

ABSTRACT: Multiplicity arises when data analysis involves multiple simultaneous inferences, increasing the chance of spurious findings. It is a widespread problem frequently ignored by researchers. In this paper, we perform an exploratory analysis of the Web of Science database for COVID-19 observational studies. We examined 100 top-cited COVID-19 peer-reviewed articles based on p-values, including up to 7100 simultaneous tests, with 50% including >34 tests, and 20% > 100 tests. We found that the larger the number of tests performed, the larger the number of significant results (r = 0.87, p < 10-6). The number of p-values in the abstracts was not related to the number of p-values in the papers. However, the highly significant results (p < 0.001) in the abstracts were strongly correlated (r = 0.61, p < 10-6) with the number of p < 0.001 significances in the papers. Furthermore, the abstracts included a higher proportion of significant results (0.91 vs. 0.50), and 80% reported only significant results. Only one reviewed paper addressed multiplicity-induced type I error inflation, pointing to potentially spurious results bypassing the peer-review process. We conclude the need to pay special attention to the increased chance of false discoveries in observational studies, including non-replicated striking discoveries with a potentially large social impact. We propose some easy-to-implement measures to assess and limit the effects of multiplicity.

SUBMITTER: Gutierrez-Hernandez O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8430657 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Multiplicity Eludes Peer Review: The Case of COVID-19 Research.

Gutiérrez-Hernández Oliver O García Luis Ventura LV

International journal of environmental research and public health 20210903 17

Multiplicity arises when data analysis involves multiple simultaneous inferences, increasing the chance of spurious findings. It is a widespread problem frequently ignored by researchers. In this paper, we perform an exploratory analysis of the Web of Science database for COVID-19 observational studies. We examined 100 top-cited COVID-19 peer-reviewed articles based on <i>p</i>-values, including up to 7100 simultaneous tests, with 50% including >34 tests, and 20% > 100 tests. We found that the l ...[more]

PMID: 34501892

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Project description:ImportanceAlthough peer review is an important component of publication for new research, the viability of this process has been questioned, particularly with the added stressors of the COVID-19 pandemic.ObjectiveTo characterize rates of peer reviewer acceptance of invitations to review manuscripts, reviewer turnaround times, and editor-assessed quality of reviews before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic at a large, open-access general medical journal.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective, pre-post cohort study examined all research manuscripts submitted to JAMA Network Open between January 1, 2019, and June 29, 2021, either directly or via transfer from other JAMA Network journals, for which at least 1 peer review of manuscript content was solicited. Measures were compared between the period before the World Health Organization declaration of a COVID-19 pandemic on March 11, 2020 (14.3 months), and the period during the pandemic (15.6 months) among all reviewed manuscripts and between pandemic-period manuscripts that did or did not address COVID-19.Main outcomes and measuresFor each reviewed manuscript, the number of invitations sent to reviewers, proportions of reviewers accepting invitations, time in days to return reviews, and editor-assessed quality ratings of reviews were determined.ResultsIn total, the journal sought review for 5013 manuscripts, including 4295 Original Investigations (85.7%) and 718 Research Letters (14.3%); 1860 manuscripts were submitted during the prepandemic period and 3153 during the pandemic period. Comparing the prepandemic with the pandemic period, the mean (SD) number of reviews rated as high quality (very good or excellent) per manuscript increased slightly from 1.3 (0.7) to 1.5 (0.7) (P < .001), and the mean (SD) time for reviewers to return reviews was modestly shorter (from 15.8 [7.6] days to 14.4 [7.0] days; P < .001), a difference that persisted in linear regression models accounting for manuscript type, study design, and whether the manuscript addressed COVID-19.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study, the speed and editor-reported quality of peer reviews in an open-access general medical journal improved modestly during the initial year of the pandemic. Additional study will be necessary to understand how the pandemic has affected reviewer burden and fatigue.

Project description:BackgroundThe Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) is obligated to peer review and to post publicly "Final Research Reports" of all funded projects. PCORI peer review emphasizes adherence to PCORI's Methodology Standards and principles of ethical scientific communication. During the peer review process, reviewers and editors seek to ensure that results are presented objectively and interpreted appropriately, e.g., free of spin.MethodsTwo independent raters assessed PCORI peer review feedback sent to authors. We calculated the proportion of reports in which spin was identified during peer review, and the types of spin identified. We included reports submitted by April 2018 with at least one associated journal article. The same raters then assessed whether authors addressed reviewers' comments about spin. The raters also assessed whether spin identified during PCORI peer review was present in related journal articles.ResultsWe included 64 PCORI-funded projects. Peer reviewers or editors identified spin in 55/64 (86%) submitted research reports. Types of spin included reporting bias (46/55; 84%), inappropriate interpretation (40/55; 73%), inappropriate extrapolation of results (15/55; 27%), and inappropriate attribution of causality (5/55; 9%). Authors addressed comments about spin related to 47/55 (85%) of the reports. Of 110 associated journal articles, PCORI comments about spin were potentially applicable to 44/110 (40%) articles, of which 27/44 (61%) contained the same spin that was identified in the PCORI research report. The proportion of articles with spin was similar for articles accepted before and after PCORI peer review (63% vs 58%).DiscussionJust as spin is common in journal articles and press releases, we found that most reports submitted to PCORI included spin. While most spin was mitigated during the funder's peer review process, we found no evidence that review of PCORI reports influenced spin in journal articles. Funders could explore interventions aimed at reducing spin in published articles of studies they support.

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Multiplicity Eludes Peer Review: The Case of COVID-19 Research.

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Multiplicity Eludes Peer Review: The Case of COVID-19 Research.

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