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SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen testing in the healthcare sector: A clinical prediction model for identifying false negative results.


ABSTRACT:

Objectives

SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen tests (RAT) provide fast identification of infectious patients when RT-PCR results are not immediately available. We aimed to develop a prediction model for identification of false negative (FN) RAT results.

Methods

In this multicenter trial, patients with documented paired results of RAT and RT-PCR between October 1st 2020 and January 31st 2021 were retrospectively analyzed regarding clinical findings. Variables included demographics, laboratory values and specific symptoms. Three different models were evaluated using Bayesian logistic regression.

Results

The initial dataset contained 4,076 patients. Overall sensitivity and specificity of RAT was 62.3% and 97.6%. 2,997 cases with negative RAT results (FN: 120; true negative: 2,877; reference: RT-PCR) underwent further evaluation after removal of cases with missing data. The best-performing model for predicting FN RAT results containing 10 variables yielded an area under the curve of 0.971. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for 0.09 as cut-off value (probability for FN RAT) were 0.85, 0.99, 0.7 and 0.99.

Conclusion

FN RAT results can be accurately identified through ten routinely available variables. Implementation of a prediction model in addition to RAT testing in clinical care can provide decision guidance for initiating appropriate hygiene measures and therefore helps avoiding nosocomial infections.

SUBMITTER: Leiner J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8431843 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen testing in the healthcare sector: A clinical prediction model for identifying false negative results.

Leiner Johannes J   Pellissier Vincent V   Nitsche Anne A   König Sebastian S   Hohenstein Sven S   Nachtigall Irit I   Hindricks Gerhard G   Kutschker Christoph C   Rolinski Boris B   Gebauer Julian J   Prantz Anja A   Schubert Joerg J   Patzschke Joerg J   Bollmann Andreas A   Wolz Martin M  

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases 20210910


<h4>Objectives</h4>SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen tests (RAT) provide fast identification of infectious patients when RT-PCR results are not immediately available. We aimed to develop a prediction model for identification of false negative (FN) RAT results.<h4>Methods</h4>In this multicenter trial, patients with documented paired results of RAT and RT-PCR between October 1<sup>st</sup> 2020 and January 31<sup>st</sup> 2021 were retrospectively analyzed regarding clinical findings. Variables included d  ...[more]

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