Modelling the impact of lockdown-easing measures on cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths in England.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To assess the potential impacts of successive lockdown-easing measures in England, at a point in the COVID-19 pandemic when community transmission levels were relatively high.

Design

We developed a Bayesian model to infer incident cases and reproduction number (R) in England, from incident death data. We then used this to forecast excess cases and deaths in multiple plausible scenarios in which R increases at one or more time points.

Setting

England.

Participants

Publicly available national incident death data for COVID-19 were examined.

Primary outcome

Excess cumulative cases and deaths forecast at 90 days, in simulated scenarios of plausible increases in R after successive easing of lockdown in England, compared with a b

SUBMITTER: Ziauddeen H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8438582 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature